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Firm-Level Political Risk and Asymmetric Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Goodness C. Aye

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)

  • Mehmet Balcilar

    (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Northern Cyprus, Turkey; Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa and Montpellier Business School, Montpellier, France.)

  • Riza Demirer

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville, Edwardsville, USA)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)

Abstract

This paper examines whether proxies of political risk exposure at the firm-level can predict the aggregate stock market volatility. Utilizing a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test which not only guards against misspecification due to nonlinearity, but also tests for causality over the entire conditional distribution of the realized volatilities, we show that political risk exposure can serve as a strong predictor of bad realized volatility, while the causal effects are non-existent in the case of overall and good realized volatilities. Our findings provide novel insight to the well documented asymmetric volatility puzzle and the effect of political uncertainty on stock market fluctuations via the investor attention channel. The results also suggest that political risk exposure could be a contributing factor to jump risk in the cross-section of returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Firm-Level Political Risk and Asymmetric Volatility," Working Papers 201861, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201861
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    Cited by:

    1. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    2. Saima Latif & Faheem Aslam & Paulo Ferreira & Sohail Iqbal, 2024. "Integrating Macroeconomic and Technical Indicators into Forecasting the Stock Market: A Data-Driven Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-28, December.
    3. Shehub Bin Hasan & Md Samsul Alam & Sudharshan Reddy Paramati & Md Shahidul Islam, 2022. "Does firm-level political risk affect cash holdings?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 311-337, July.
    4. Riza Demirer & Asli Yuksel & Aydin Yuksel, 2020. "The U.S. term structure and return volatility in emerging stock markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(4), pages 687-707, October.
    5. Maki, Daiki, 2024. "Forecasting downside and upside realized volatility: The role of asymmetric information," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    6. Jiang, Yong & Al-Nassar, Nassar S. & Ren, Yi-Shuai & Ma, Chao-Qun & Yang, Xiao-Guang, 2024. "Tail connectedness between category-specific policy uncertainty, sovereign debt risk, and stock volatility during a high inflation period," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    7. Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Wu, Junjie & Duong, An Trong, 2020. "Information Asymmetry and firm value: Is Vietnam different?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    8. Aliyev, Fuzuli & Ajayi, Richard & Gasim, Nijat, 2020. "Modelling asymmetric market volatility with univariate GARCH models: Evidence from Nasdaq-100," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    9. Jiasheng Yu & Maojun Zhang & Ruoyu Liu & Guodong Wang, 2023. "Dynamic Effects of Climate Policy Uncertainty on Green Bond Volatility: An Empirical Investigation Based on TVP-VAR Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-17, January.
    10. Wang, Bin & Wang, Liang & Gong, Bairong & Yan, Zhengwei & Hu, Pan, 2023. "Does broadband internet infrastructure mitigate firm-level economic policy uncertainty? Evidence from the Broadband China Pilot Policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    11. Virbickaitė, Audronė & Frey, Christoph & Macedo, Demian N., 2020. "Bayesian sequential stock return prediction through copulas," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    12. Liu, Peipei & Huang, Wei-Qiang, 2024. "Spatial analysis of sovereign risk from the perspective of EPU spillovers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 427-443.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aggregate Realized Volatility; Firm-Level Political Risk; Quantile Causality; S&P 500.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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