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Streamflow Response to Climate and Land-Use Changes in a Tropical Island Basin

Author

Listed:
  • Can Cao

    (Rubber Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences, Haikou 571101, China
    School of Geography and Planning, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, China
    Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Rui Sun

    (Rubber Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences, Haikou 571101, China
    Hainan Danzhou Tropical Agro-Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Danzhou 571737, China)

  • Zhixiang Wu

    (Rubber Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences, Haikou 571101, China
    Hainan Danzhou Tropical Agro-Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Danzhou 571737, China)

  • Bangqian Chen

    (Rubber Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences, Haikou 571101, China
    Hainan Danzhou Tropical Agro-Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Danzhou 571737, China)

  • Chuan Yang

    (Rubber Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences, Haikou 571101, China
    Hainan Danzhou Tropical Agro-Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Danzhou 571737, China)

  • Qian Li

    (School of Geography and Planning, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, China)

  • Klaus Fraedrich

    (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146 Hamburg, Germany)

Abstract

The effects of climate change and of land use/cover change (LUCC) on streamflow as demonstrated by hydrological models are pressing issues on the frontiers of global environmental change research. The Nandu River Basin (NRB) as the largest of three river basins on the tropical Hainan Island, China, is subjected to an analysis of streamflow response to climate and to land-use change. It is based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) coupled with climate change signals extracted from the global climate model data in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and with land-use change scenarios modeled by Cellular Automata (CA)—Markov. The results are summarized as follows: (1) Climate change contributed more to streamflow change than land-use change in the NRB, with contributions of 97.57% and 2.43%, respectively. Precipitation and temperature were the most important climate variables, contributing 92.66% and 4.91% to streamflow change. (2) In the tropical island basin from 1990 to 2015, LUCC regulated the hydrological processes in the NRB and affected hydrological processes by increasing evapotranspiration and decreasing surface runoff and subsurface flow, which resulted in decreasing streamflow. (3) Under the climate change and land-use change scenarios of the near-term period (2021–2040), the annual streamflow decreased as during the reference period (1995–2014); particularly, it decreased most (−6.16%) on the SSP126 path. These results present a case study for understanding the hydrological cycle of tropical island basins and to provide a theoretical basis for water resources management and regional sustainable development of tropical islands.

Suggested Citation

  • Can Cao & Rui Sun & Zhixiang Wu & Bangqian Chen & Chuan Yang & Qian Li & Klaus Fraedrich, 2023. "Streamflow Response to Climate and Land-Use Changes in a Tropical Island Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-21, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:18:p:13941-:d:1243766
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeyrani, F. & Morid, S. & Srinivasan, R., 2021. "Assessing basin blue–green available water components under different management and climate scenarios using SWAT," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    2. Shuoyang Li & Guiyu Yang & Hao Wang, 2019. "The Runoff Evolution and the Differences Analysis of the Causes of Runoff Change in Different Regions: A Case of the Weihe River Basin, Northern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-24, September.
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