IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v14y2022i7p3954-d780770.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Nature-Based Tourism, Scenario Planning Approach (Case Study of Nature-Based Tourism in Iran)

Author

Listed:
  • Hossein Komasi

    (School of Engineering, Catholic University of the North, Coquimbo 1780000, Chile)

  • Sarfaraz Hashemkhani Zolfani

    (School of Engineering, Catholic University of the North, Coquimbo 1780000, Chile)

  • Fausto Cavallaro

    (Department of Economics, University of Molise, 86100 Campobasso, Italy)

Abstract

The development of nature-based tourism is one of the most critical sectors of tourism, which is influenced by various economic, socio-cultural, and environmental factors. The COVID-19 pandemic has influenced all sectors of tourism, including nature-based tourism. The purpose of this article is to identify the key drivers affecting the development of nature-based tourism and analyze future scenarios of nature-based tourism in Iran based on the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Micmac and ScenarioWizard software programs were used to analyze the research findings. Many factors affect the development of nature-based tourism in Iran, which fall into two human and natural factors groups. Five factors are the key drivers influencing the development of nature-based tourism in Iran: national, regional and globaly safety (F2); economic stability (F8); private sector participation (F9), human crises such as diseases, wars, etc. (F16); national and international advertising (national and international (F17); and travel costs (F19). According to the future of the COVID-19 pandemic, the research results show that a total of 10 scenarios for the future of nature-based tourism in Iran are conceivable, which are presented in three groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Hossein Komasi & Sarfaraz Hashemkhani Zolfani & Fausto Cavallaro, 2022. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Nature-Based Tourism, Scenario Planning Approach (Case Study of Nature-Based Tourism in Iran)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-13, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:7:p:3954-:d:780770
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/7/3954/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/7/3954/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Dan & Ap, John, 2013. "Factors affecting tourism policy implementation: A conceptual framework and a case study in China," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 221-233.
    2. Cai, Ya-Jun & Choi, Tsan-Ming, 2020. "A United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals perspective for sustainable textile and apparel supply chain management," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    3. Osman, Taher & Shaw, David & Kenawy, Emad, 2018. "Examining the extent to which stakeholder collaboration during ecotourism planning processes could be applied within an Egyptian context," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 126-137.
    4. Berné, Carmen & García-González, Margarita & García-Uceda, María E. & Múgica, José M., 2015. "The effect of ICT on relationship enhancement and performance in tourism channels," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 188-198.
    5. Łuczak, Aleksandra & Just, Małgorzata, 2021. "Sustainable development of territorial units: MCDM approach with optimal tail selection," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 457(C).
    6. Škare, Marinko & Soriano, Domingo Riberio & Porada-Rochoń, Małgorzata, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on the travel and tourism industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    7. Sørensen, Flemming & Grindsted, Thomas Skou, 2021. "Sustainability approaches and nature tourism development," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    8. Scheyvens, Regina & Carr, Anna & Movono, Apisalome & Hughes, Emma & Higgins-Desbiolles, Freya & Mika, Jason Paul, 2021. "Indigenous tourism and the sustainable development goals," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    9. Briec, Walter & Kerstens, Kristiaan & Prior, Diego & Van de Woestyne, Ignace, 2018. "Testing general and special Färe-Primont indices: A proposal for public and private sector synthetic indices of European regional expenditures and tourism," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(2), pages 756-768.
    10. Robaina, M. & Madaleno, M. & Silva, S. & Eusébio, C. & Carneiro, M.J. & Gama, C. & Oliveira, K. & Russo, M.A. & Monteiro, A., 2020. "The relationship between tourism and air quality in five European countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 261-272.
    11. Wang, Caiping & Xu, Honggang, 2014. "The role of local government and the private sector in China's tourism industry," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 95-105.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Torabi, Zabih-Allah & Rezvani, Mohammad Reza & Hall, C. Michael & Allam, Zaheer, 2023. "On the post-pandemic travel boom: How capacity building and smart tourism technologies in rural areas can help - evidence from Iran," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Iva Gregurec & Martina Tomičić Furjan & Katarina Tomičić-Pupek, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Sustainable Business Models in SMEs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-24, January.
    2. Kusa, Rafał & Suder, Marcin & Duda, Joanna, 2023. "Impact of greening on performance in the hospitality industry: Moderating effect of flexibility and inter-organizational cooperation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    3. Priom Mahmud & Sanjoy Kumar Paul & Abdullahil Azeem & Priyabrata Chowdhury, 2021. "Evaluating Supply Chain Collaboration Barriers in Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-28, July.
    4. Tomasz Kijek & Anna Matras-Bolibok, 2020. "Knowledge-intensive Specialisation and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in the EU Regional Scope," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 68(1), pages 181-188.
    5. de Palma, André & Vosough, Shaghayegh & Liao, Feixiong, 2022. "An overview of effects of COVID-19 on mobility and lifestyle: 18 months since the outbreak," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 372-397.
    6. Chopdar, Prasanta Kr & Paul, Justin & Prodanova, Jana, 2022. "Mobile shoppers’ response to Covid-19 phobia, pessimism and smartphone addiction: Does social influence matter?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    7. M. A. Hannan & M. S. Abd Rahman & Ali Q. Al-Shetwi & R. A. Begum & Pin Jern Ker & M. Mansor & M. S. Mia & M. J. Hossain & Z. Y. Dong & T. M. I. Mahlia, 2022. "Impact Assessment of COVID-19 Severity on Environment, Economy and Society towards Affecting Sustainable Development Goals," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-23, November.
    8. Keeheon Lee, 2021. "A Systematic Review on Social Sustainability of Artificial Intelligence in Product Design," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-29, March.
    9. Derya Demirdelen Alrawadieh, 2021. "Does Employability Anxiety Trigger Psychological Distress and Academic Major Dissatisfaction? A Study on Tour Guiding Students," Journal of Tourismology, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 55-71, June.
    10. Cristiano Franceschinis & Joffre Swait & Akshay Vij & Mara Thiene, 2021. "Determinants of Recreational Activities Choice in Protected Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    11. Parvaneh Sobhani & Hassan Esmaeilzadeh & Seyed Mohammad Moein Sadeghi & Isabelle D. Wolf & Azade Deljouei, 2022. "Relationship Analysis of Local Community Participation in Sustainable Ecotourism Development in Protected Areas, Iran," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-16, October.
    12. Chung-Wei Kuo, 2021. "Can We Return to Our Normal Life When the Pandemic Is under Control? A Preliminary Study on the Influence of COVID-19 on the Tourism Characteristics of Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-17, August.
    13. Olimjon Saidmamatov & Umidjon Matyakubov & Inna Rudenko & Viachaslau Filimonau & Jonathon Day & Tobias Luthe, 2020. "Employing Ecotourism Opportunities for Sustainability in the Aral Sea Region: Prospects and Challenges," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-19, November.
    14. Guido Sechi & Zaiga Krisjane & Maris Berzins & Daina Vinklere, 2014. "Quality of Life and Tourism-Related Perceptions among Residents: Evidence from Lake Engure Area, Latvia," ERSA conference papers ersa14p597, European Regional Science Association.
    15. Hung Wan Kot & Ming-Hsiang Chen & Ching-Hui (Joan) Su & Yu-Xia Lin, 2024. "Tang poetry and tourism: Cultural effects after 1000 years," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(1), pages 152-173, February.
    16. Jorge Gustavo Rodríguez Aboytes & Matthias Barth, 2020. "Learning Processes in the Early Development of Sustainable Niches: The Case of Sustainable Fashion Entrepreneurs in Mexico," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-26, October.
    17. Matt Andrews & Lant Pritchett & Michael Woolcock, 2016. "Scaling PDIA through Broad Agency, and Your Role," CID Working Papers 315, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    18. Ziyu Jia & Yan Jiao & Wei Zhang & Zheng Chen, 2022. "Rural Tourism Competitiveness and Development Mode, a Case Study from Chinese Township Scale Using Integrated Multi-Source Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-17, March.
    19. Kamer-Ainur Aivaz & Adrian Micu, 2021. "An analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of tourists arriving in Romania using the correspondence factor analysis," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 24(1), pages 324-335, October.
    20. Jyh-Rong Chou, 2021. "A Scoping Review of Ontologies Relevant to Design Strategies in Response to the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-27, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:7:p:3954-:d:780770. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.