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Impact of China’s Provincial Government Debt on Economic Growth and Sustainable Development

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  • Wanping Yang

    (School of Economics and Finance, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China)

  • Zhenya Zhang

    (School of Economics and Finance, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China)

  • Yajuan Wang

    (School of Management, FuDan University, Shanghai 200433, China)

  • Peidong Deng

    (School of Economics and Finance, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China)

  • Luyao Guo

    (School of Economics and Finance, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China)

Abstract

Macroeconomic stability is the core concept of sustainable development. However, the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has caused government debt problems worldwide. In this context, it is of practical significance to study the impact of government debt on economic growth and fluctuations. Based on panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2019, we used the Mann–Kendall method and Kernel Density estimation to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of China’s provincial government debt ratio and adopted a panel model and HP filtering method to study the impact of provincial government debt on economic growth and fluctuation. Our findings indicate that, during the sample period, China’s provincial government debt promoted economic growth and the regression coefficient (0.024) was significant. From different regional perspectives, the promotion effect of the central region (0.027) is higher than that of the eastern (0.020) and western regions (0.023). There is a nonlinear relationship between China’s provincial government debt and economic growth, showing an inverted “U-shaped” curve. Fluctuations in government debt aggravate economic volatility, with a coefficient of 0.009; tax burden fluctuation and population growth rate aggravate economic changes. In contrast, the optimization of the province’s industrial structure and the improvement of the opening level of provinces slow down economic fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Wanping Yang & Zhenya Zhang & Yajuan Wang & Peidong Deng & Luyao Guo, 2022. "Impact of China’s Provincial Government Debt on Economic Growth and Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-21, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:14:y:2022:i:3:p:1474-:d:735787
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xindong Wei & Ning Wang & Pingping Luo & Jie Yang & Jian Zhang & Kangli Lin, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Assessment of Land Marketization and Its Driving Forces for Sustainable Urban–Rural Development in Shaanxi Province in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-20, July.
    2. Agnieszka Kozera & Aldona Standar & Łukasz Satoła, 2020. "Managing Rural Areas in the Context of the Growing Debt of Polish Local Government Units," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-25, August.
    3. Vadim Elenev & Tim Landvoigt & Patrick J. Shultz & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Can Monetary Policy Create Fiscal Capacity?," NBER Working Papers 29129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Busato, Francesco & Varlese, Monica & Ulloa Severino, Claudia, 2022. "Public debt heterogeneity at country level: an empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 113812, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Yuanlin Wu & Cunzhi Tian & Guannan Wang, 2023. "Local Government Debt and Corporate Investment Behavior in China: Real versus Financial Investment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-22, November.

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