Long-Term Development Perspectives in the Slow Crisis of Shrinkage: Strategies of Coping and Exiting

As a slow crisis, shrinkage is a situation where if actions are not taken to change things, a downward spiral or a long-term decline could happen. The complex, long-term nature of this crisis underlines the importance and potential of strategic approach. However, the conceptualisation of development strategy remains abstract, attributive, or focused on sectorial policies, lacking a view of their roles in the overall development. Against this context, this research investigates (1) how cities that have acknowledged shrinkage strategically organise degrowth, non-growth, and growth-promoting instruments in dealing with shrinkage, (2) what long-term development perspectives emerge out of their policies, and (3) what factors in the local context constrain their strategies. The empirical basis is a cross-national comparative case study between Den Helder and Zwickau, a Dutch and German midsize city, with a cross-sectorial view and a focus on the long-term aspects to reveal the conceptual structures of their strategies. This approach captures how and explains why the cities, as regional centres with similar attitudes towards shrinkage and comparable economic levels, adopt many similar policies but lean towards contrasting long-term perspectives—one strives to exit the crisis, the other has routinised coping with shrinkage and lacks the vision of a different future. Their differences stimulate reflection on the context and parameters for revitalisation, and their shared challenges underlines the need for theory development based on situated policymaking challenges and a more strategic approach in the development of shrinking cities.