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Densify and Expand: A Global Analysis of Recent Urban Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Shlomo Angel

    (Marron Institute of Urban Management, New York University, Brooklyn, NY 11201, USA)

  • Patrick Lamson-Hall

    (Marron Institute of Urban Management, New York University, Brooklyn, NY 11201, USA)

  • Alejandro Blei

    (Marron Institute of Urban Management, New York University, Brooklyn, NY 11201, USA)

  • Sharad Shingade

    (Pillai College of Engineering, New Panvel, Navi Mumbai 410206, India)

  • Suman Kumar

    (Pillai College of Architecture, New Panvel, Navi Mumbai 410206, India)

Abstract

Serious concerns with accelerating global warming have been translated into urgent calls for increasing urban densities: higher densities are associated with lower greenhouse gas emissions, especially those related to vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT). In order to densify meaningfully in the coming decades, cities need to make room within their existing footprints to accommodate more people. In the absence of adequate room within their existing footprints, cities create more room through outward expansion, typically resulting in lower overall densities. We introduce a quantitative dimension to this process, focusing on the population added to a global stratified sample of 200 cities between 1990 and 2014. In three-quarters of the cities we studied, the areas built before 1990 gained population and thus densified significantly. On average, however, only one-quarter of the total population added to the 200 cities in the sample in the 1990–2014 period were accommodated within their 1990 urban footprints, while three-quarters were accommodated within their newly built expansion areas. That resulted in an overall decline in average urban densities during the 1990–2014 period despite the near-global, decades-old and rarely questioned consensus that urban expansion must be contained.

Suggested Citation

  • Shlomo Angel & Patrick Lamson-Hall & Alejandro Blei & Sharad Shingade & Suman Kumar, 2021. "Densify and Expand: A Global Analysis of Recent Urban Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-28, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:7:p:3835-:d:527321
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lei Kang & Siyou Xia, 2023. "Study on Urbanization Sustainability of Xinjiang in China: Connotation, Indicators and Measurement," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-20, January.
    2. Su Wu & Neema Simon Sumari & Ting Dong & Gang Xu & Yanfang Liu, 2021. "Characterizing Urban Expansion Combining Concentric-Ring and Grid-Based Analysis for Latin American Cities," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-14, April.
    3. Muchen Zheng & Wenli Huang & Gang Xu & Xi Li & Limin Jiao, 2023. "Spatial gradients of urban land density and nighttime light intensity in 30 global megacities," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Mykhailo Lohachov & Nataliya Rybnikova, 2022. "A Cellular-Automaton Model for Population-Density and Urban-Extent Dynamics at the Regional Level: The Case of Ukrainian Provinces," Geographies, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-15, April.
    5. Wolfgang Scholz, 2021. "Appropriate Housing Typologies, Effective Land Management and the Question of Density in Muscat, Oman," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-27, November.
    6. Abdulaziz A. Alotaibi & Naif Alajlan, 2021. "Using Quantile Regression to Analyze the Relationship between Socioeconomic Indicators and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in G20 Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-12, June.

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