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ASEAN’s Energy Transition towards Cleaner Energy System: Energy Modelling Scenarios and Policy Implications

Author

Listed:
  • Han Phoumin

    (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), Think Tank, Jakarta 10270, Indonesia)

  • Fukunari Kimura

    (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), Think Tank, Jakarta 10270, Indonesia
    Faculty of Economics, Keio University, Tokyo 108-8345, Japan)

  • Jun Arima

    (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), Think Tank, Jakarta 10270, Indonesia
    Graduate School of Public Policy, Tokyo University, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan)

Abstract

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) faces tremendous challenges regarding the future energy landscape and how the energy transition will embrace a new architecture—including sound policies and technologies to ensure energy access together with affordability, energy security, and energy sustainability. Given the high share of fossil fuels in ASEAN’s current energy mix (oil, coal, and natural gas comprise almost 80%), the clean use of fossil fuels through the deployment of clean technologies is indispensable for decarbonizing ASEAN’s emissions. The future energy landscape of ASEAN will rely on today’s actions, policies, and investments to change the fossil fuel-based energy system towards a cleaner energy system, but any decisions and energy policy measures to be rolled out during the energy transition need to be weighed against potentially higher energy costs, affordability issues, and energy security risks. This paper employs energy modelling scenarios to seek plausible policy options for ASEAN to achieve more emissions reductions as well as energy savings, and to assess the extent to which the composition of the energy mix will be changed under various energy policy scenarios. The results imply policy recommendations for accelerating the share of renewables, adopting clean technologies and the clean use of fossil fuels, and investing in climate-resilient energy quality infrastructure.

Suggested Citation

  • Han Phoumin & Fukunari Kimura & Jun Arima, 2021. "ASEAN’s Energy Transition towards Cleaner Energy System: Energy Modelling Scenarios and Policy Implications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-29, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:5:p:2819-:d:511439
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shigeru Kimura & Romeo Pacudan & Han Phoumin, 2017. "Development of the Eco Town Model in the ASEAN Region through Adoption of Energy-Efficient Building Technologies, Sustainable Transport, and Smart Grids," Books, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), number 2015-rpr-20 edited by Shigeru Kimura & Romeo Pacudan & Han Phoumin, December.
    2. McCauley, Darren & Heffron, Raphael, 2018. "Just transition: Integrating climate, energy and environmental justice," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 1-7.
    3. Han Phoumin & Fukunari Kimura & Jun Arima, 2020. "Potential Renewable Hydrogen from Curtailed Electricity to Decarbonize ASEAN’s Emissions: Policy Implications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Heffron, Raphael J. & McCauley, Darren & Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2015. "Resolving society's energy trilemma through the Energy Justice Metric," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 168-176.
    5. Rabindra Nepal & Han Phoumin & Abiral Khatri, 2021. "Green Technological Development and Deployment in the Association of Southeast Asian Economies (ASEAN)—At Crossroads or Roundabout?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-19, January.
    6. Hassan Ali & Han Phoumin & Steven R. Weller & Beni Suryadi, 2021. "Expediting Transition Towards HELE Coal-Fired Electricity Generation Technologies in Southeast Asia: A Comparative Economic Analysis of HELE and Subcritical Coal-Fired Technologies," Economics, Law, and Institutions in Asia Pacific, in: Han Phoumin & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Fukunari Kimura & Jun Arima (ed.), Energy Sustainability and Climate Change in ASEAN, chapter 0, pages 147-165, Springer.
    7. Hassan Ali & Han Phoumin & Steven R. Weller & Beni Suryadi, 2021. "Cost–Benefit Analysis of HELE and Subcritical Coal-Fired Electricity Generation Technologies in Southeast Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-16, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chien, FengSheng & Vu, Trong Lam & Hien Phan, Thi Thu & Van Nguyen, Sang & Viet Anh, Nguyen Ho & Ngo, Thanh Quang, 2023. "Zero-carbon energy transition in ASEAN countries: The role of carbon finance, carbon taxes, and sustainable energy technologies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 561-569.
    2. Alaa A. F. Husain & Maryam Huda Ahmad Phesal & Mohd Zainal Abidin Ab Kadir & Ungku Anisa Ungku Amirulddin & Abdulhadi H. J. Junaidi, 2021. "A Decade of Transitioning Malaysia toward a High-Solar PV Energy Penetration Nation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-16, September.
    3. Yurii Kharazishvili & Aleksy Kwilinski & Oleksandr Sukhodolia & Henryk Dzwigol & Dmytro Bobro & Janusz Kotowicz, 2021. "The Systemic Approach for Estimating and Strategizing Energy Security: The Case of Ukraine," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-30, April.
    4. Bai, Wuliyasu & Zhang, Long & Lu, Shengfang & Ren, Jingzheng & Zhou, Zhiqiao, 2023. "Sustainable energy transition in Southeast Asia: Energy status analysis, comprehensive evaluation and influential factor identification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).

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