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Estimating the Long-Term Reliability of Steel and Cast Iron Pipelines Subject to Pitting Corrosion

Author

Listed:
  • Robert E. Melchers

    (Centre for Infrastructure Performance and Reliability, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan 2308, Australia)

  • Mukshed Ahammed

    (Centre for Infrastructure Performance and Reliability, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan 2308, Australia)

Abstract

Water-injection, oil production and water-supply pipelines are prone to pitting corrosion that may have a serious effect on their longer-term serviceability and sustainability. Typically, observed pit-depth data are handled for a reliability analysis using an extreme value distribution such as Gumbel. Available data do not always fit such monomodal probability distributions well, particularly in the most extreme pit-depth region, irrespective of the type of pipeline. Examples of this are presented, the reasons for this phenomenon are discussed and a rationale is presented for the otherwise entirely empirical use of the ‘domain of attraction’ in extreme value applications. This permits a more rational estimation of the probability of pipe-wall perforation, which is necessary for asset management and for system-sustainability decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert E. Melchers & Mukshed Ahammed, 2021. "Estimating the Long-Term Reliability of Steel and Cast Iron Pipelines Subject to Pitting Corrosion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-10, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:23:p:13235-:d:691042
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anne‐Laure Fougères & John P. Nolan & Holger Rootzén, 2009. "Models for Dependent Extremes Using Stable Mixtures," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 36(1), pages 42-59, March.
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