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Quality of the Wind Wave Forecast in the Black Sea Including Storm Wave Analysis

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  • Stanislav Myslenkov

    (Department of Oceanology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 119991 Moscow, Russia
    Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS, 117997 Moscow, Russia
    Hydrometeorological Research Centre of the Russian Federation, 123242 Moscow, Russia)

  • Alexander Zelenko

    (Hydrometeorological Research Centre of the Russian Federation, 123242 Moscow, Russia)

  • Yuriy Resnyanskii

    (Hydrometeorological Research Centre of the Russian Federation, 123242 Moscow, Russia)

  • Victor Arkhipkin

    (Department of Oceanology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 119991 Moscow, Russia)

  • Ksenia Silvestrova

    (Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS, 117997 Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

This paper presents the results of wind wave forecasts for the Black Sea. Three different versions utilized were utilized: the WAVEWATCH III model with GFS 0.25 forcing on a regular grid, the WAVEWATCH III model with COSMO-RU07 forcing on a regular grid, and the SWAN model with COSMO-RU07 forcing on an unstructured grid. AltiKa satellite altimeter data were used to assess the quality of wind and wave forecasts for the period from 1 April to 31 December 2017. Wave height and wind speed forecast data were obtained with a lead time of up to 72 h. The presented models provide an adequate forecast in terms of modern wave modeling (a correlation coefficient of 0.8–0.9 and an RMSE of 0.25–0.3 m) when all statistics were analyzed. A clear improvement in the wave forecast quality with the high-resolution wind forecast COSMO-RU07 was not registered. The bias error did not exceed 0.5 m in an SWH range from 0 to 3 m. However, the bias sharply increased to −2 or −3 m for an SWH range of 3–4 m. Wave forecast quality assessments were conducted for several storm cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Stanislav Myslenkov & Alexander Zelenko & Yuriy Resnyanskii & Victor Arkhipkin & Ksenia Silvestrova, 2021. "Quality of the Wind Wave Forecast in the Black Sea Including Storm Wave Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-21, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:23:p:13099-:d:688570
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Florin Onea & Liliana Rusu, 2017. "A Long-Term Assessment of the Black Sea Wave Climate," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-18, October.
    2. Zhang, Yongxing & Zhao, Yongjie & Sun, Wei & Li, Jiaxuan, 2021. "Ocean wave energy converters: Technical principle, device realization, and performance evaluation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
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    1. Victoria Yildirir & Eugen Rusu & Florin Onea, 2022. "Wind Energy Assessments in the Northern Romanian Coastal Environment Based on 20 Years of Data Coming from Different Sources," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-21, April.

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