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National Vaccination and Local Intervention Impacts on COVID-19 Cases

Author

Listed:
  • Toni Toharudin

    (Department of Statistics, Padjadjaran University, West Java, Bandung 45363, Indonesia)

  • Resa Septiani Pontoh

    (Department of Statistics, Padjadjaran University, West Java, Bandung 45363, Indonesia)

  • Rezzy Eko Caraka

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, Campus UI Depok, Universitas Indonesia, West Java, Depok 16424, Indonesia
    Bioinformatics and Data Science Research Center, Bina Nusantara University, Jakarta 11480, Indonesia)

  • Solichatus Zahroh

    (Department of Statistics, Padjadjaran University, West Java, Bandung 45363, Indonesia)

  • Panji Kendogo

    (Department of Statistics, Padjadjaran University, West Java, Bandung 45363, Indonesia)

  • Novika Sijabat

    (Department of Statistics, Padjadjaran University, West Java, Bandung 45363, Indonesia)

  • Mentari Dara Puspita Sari

    (Department of Statistics, Padjadjaran University, West Java, Bandung 45363, Indonesia)

  • Prana Ugiana Gio

    (Department of Mathematics, Universitas Sumatera Utara, Medan 20155, Indonesia)

  • Mohammad Basyuni

    (Department of Forestry, Faculty of Forestry, Universitas Sumatera Utara, Medan 20155, Indonesia)

  • Bens Pardamean

    (Bioinformatics and Data Science Research Center, Bina Nusantara University, Jakarta 11480, Indonesia
    Computer Science Department, Bina Nusantara University, Jakarta 11480, Indonesia)

Abstract

COVID-19, as a global pandemic, has spread across Indonesia. Jakarta, as the capital of Indonesia, is the province with the most positive cases. The government has issued various guidelines, both at the central and regional levels. Since it began in 2021, the planned new measures, called ‘Pemberlakuan Pembatasan Kegiatan Masyarakat Darurat’, or PPKM emergency public activity restrictions, began with the possibility that the number of active cases might decrease. Accordingly, global vaccinations were also carried out, as they were in Indonesia. However, the first phase prioritized frontline health workers and high-risk elderly people. This study conducted a causal impact analysis to determine the effectiveness of PPKM in Jakarta and its vaccination program against the increase in daily new cases. Based on this test, PPKM showed a significant effect on the addition of daily new cases and recovered cases. Conversely, the vaccination program only had a significant impact on recovered cases. A forecast of the COVID-19 cases was conducted and indicated that the daily new cases showed a negative trend, although it fluctuated for the next 7 days, while death and recovered cases continued to increase. Hence, it can be said that the vaccination program has still not shown its effectiveness in decreasing the number of daily new cases while PPKM is quite effective in suppressing new cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Toni Toharudin & Resa Septiani Pontoh & Rezzy Eko Caraka & Solichatus Zahroh & Panji Kendogo & Novika Sijabat & Mentari Dara Puspita Sari & Prana Ugiana Gio & Mohammad Basyuni & Bens Pardamean, 2021. "National Vaccination and Local Intervention Impacts on COVID-19 Cases," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-17, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:15:p:8282-:d:600652
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
    2. Hongwei Zhao & Naveed N Merchant & Alyssa McNulty & Tiffany A Radcliff & Murray J Cote & Rebecca S B Fischer & Huiyan Sang & Marcia G Ory, 2021. "COVID-19: Short term prediction model using daily incidence data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-14, April.
    3. Rezzy Eko Caraka & Yusra Yusra & Toni Toharudin & Rung-Ching Chen & Mohammad Basyuni & Vilzati Juned & Prana Ugiana Gio & Bens Pardamean, 2021. "Did Noise Pollution Really Improve during COVID-19? Evidence from Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-12, May.
    4. Robert Sparrow & Teguh Dartanto & Renate Hartwig, 2020. "Indonesia Under the New Normal: Challenges and the Way Ahead," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(3), pages 269-299, September.
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