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Heterogeneous Deterioration Process and Risk of Deficiencies of Aging Bridges for Transportation Asset Management

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  • Daeseok Han

    (Sustainable Infrastructure Research Center, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyangdaero 283, Ilsanseo-gu, Goyang-si, Gyeonggi-do 10223, Korea)

Abstract

The government of the Republic of Korea has set the minimum service level of bridges as Grade B and has defined the risk management level as higher than 95 percent. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to understand the deterioration process and risk of deficiencies for bridges, and these characteristics should be reflected in the management strategy and budget investment plan. To this end, this study developed deterioration models according to the bridge ages to define heterogeneous deterioration characteristics of aging bridges. To build the deterioration models, this study collected and processed bridge diagnosis data for 10 years, and a Bayesian Markov mixed hazard model was introduced. Analysis results showed that the life expectancy of the aging bridges over 30 years was remarkably short, 1/3 of the average life expectancy of the network, and the probability of failure was seven times higher than that of new bridges within 10 years after completion. In addition, the optimal maintenance demand that satisfies a risk management level of 95 percent illustrated that 44.7 percent of the bridges at Grade C should be continuously maintained annually. The results showed that it is urgent to prepare a preemptive response strategy and budget-securing plan for aging bridges, which will rapidly increase to 39% in the next 10 years and 76% in 20 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Daeseok Han, 2021. "Heterogeneous Deterioration Process and Risk of Deficiencies of Aging Bridges for Transportation Asset Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-16, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:13:p:7094-:d:581338
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Koop,Gary & Poirier,Dale J. & Tobias,Justin L., 2007. "Bayesian Econometric Methods," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671736, June.
    2. Chunfeng Wan & Zhenwei Zhou & Siyuan Li & Youliang Ding & Zhao Xu & Zegang Yang & Yefei Xia & Fangzhou Yin, 2019. "Development of a Bridge Management System Based on the Building Information Modeling Technology," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-17, August.
    3. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555, September.
    4. Chan,Joshua & Koop,Gary & Poirier,Dale J. & Tobias,Justin L., 2019. "Bayesian Econometric Methods," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108437493, September.
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    1. Daeseok Han & Jin-Hyuk Lee & Ki-Tae Park, 2022. "Deterioration Models for Bridge Pavement Materials for a Life Cycle Cost Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-15, September.
    2. Asnake Adraro Angelo & Kotaro Sasai & Kiyoyuki Kaito, 2023. "Assessing Critical Road Sections: A Decision Matrix Approach Considering Safety and Pavement Condition," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-20, April.

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