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Resilience Dynamic Assessment Based on Precursor Events: Application to Ship LNG Bunkering Operations

Author

Listed:
  • Tomaso Vairo

    (DICCA, Civil, Chemical and Environmental Engineering Department, Genoa University, Via Opera Pia 15, 16145 Genoa, Italy)

  • Paola Gualeni

    (DITEN, Electrical, Electronics and Telecommunication Engineering and Naval Architecture Department, Genoa University, Via Opera Pia 11A, 16145 Genoa, Italy)

  • Andrea P. Reverberi

    (DCCI, Chemistry and Industrial Chemistry Department, Genoa University, Via Dodecaneso 31, 16146 Genoa, Italy)

  • Bruno Fabiano

    (DICCA, Civil, Chemical and Environmental Engineering Department, Genoa University, Via Opera Pia 15, 16145 Genoa, Italy)

Abstract

The focus of the present paper is the development of a resilience framework suitable to be applied in assessing the safety of ship LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) bunkering process. Ship propulsion considering LNG as a possible fuel (with dual fuel marine engines installed on board) has favored important discussions about the LNG supply chain and delivery on board to the ship power plant. Within this context, a resilience methodological approach is outlined, including a case study application, to demonstrate its actual effectiveness. With specific reference to the operative steps for LNG bunkering operations in the maritime field, a dynamic model based on Bayesian inference and MCMC simulations can be built, involving the probability of operational perturbations, together with their updates based on the hard (failures) and soft (process variables deviations) evidence emerging during LNG bunkering operations. The approach developed in this work, based on advanced Markov Models and variational fitting algorithms, has proven to be a useful and flexible tool to study, analyze and verify how much the perturbations of systems and subsystems can be absorbed without leading to failure.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomaso Vairo & Paola Gualeni & Andrea P. Reverberi & Bruno Fabiano, 2021. "Resilience Dynamic Assessment Based on Precursor Events: Application to Ship LNG Bunkering Operations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-17, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:12:p:6836-:d:576447
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maria Francesca Milazzo & Giuseppa Ancione & Giancarlo Consolo, 2021. "Human Factors Modelling Approach: Application to a Safety Device Supporting Crane Operations in Major Hazard Industries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-21, February.
    2. Bensi, Michelle & Kiureghian, Armen Der & Straub, Daniel, 2013. "Efficient Bayesian network modeling of systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 200-213.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jiajun Ma & Guohua Chen & Tao Zeng & Lixing Zhou & Jie Zhao & Yuanfei Zhao, 2023. "Methodology for Resilience Assessment of Oil Pipeline Network System Exposed to Earthquake," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-20, January.

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