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The Post-Pandemic Recovery of Transport Activity: Emerging Mobility Patterns and Repercussions on Future Evolution

Author

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  • Panayotis Christidis

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Seville, 41092 Sevilla, Spain)

  • Aris Christodoulou

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Seville, 41092 Sevilla, Spain)

  • Elena Navajas-Cawood

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Seville, 41092 Sevilla, Spain)

  • Biagio Ciuffo

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, 21027 Ispra, Italy)

Abstract

The expectations for post-COVID recovery of transport activity point towards a gradual return to normality, once the pandemic is under control and mobility restrictions end. The shock to society and economy has, however, caused a number of behavioural changes that can influence the evolution of the transport sector. We analyse the main factors that can influence future supply and demand and explore how they may affect trip generation, distribution and modal split in passenger transport. We combine several conventional and innovative data sources with a detailed strategic transport model at the EU level, in order to present quantitative estimates under various scenarios. New remote work patterns or personal risk avoidance attitudes can lead to increased levels of car ownership and use. Public policy priorities in the aftermath of the pandemic would need to address the emerging challenges and adopt measures that can sustain the shift to active travel, support public transport, railways and aviation and stimulate innovation in transport technologies and services.

Suggested Citation

  • Panayotis Christidis & Aris Christodoulou & Elena Navajas-Cawood & Biagio Ciuffo, 2021. "The Post-Pandemic Recovery of Transport Activity: Emerging Mobility Patterns and Repercussions on Future Evolution," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:11:p:6359-:d:568339
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Lucía Mejía-Dorantes & Lídia Montero & Jaume Barceló, 2021. "Mobility Trends before and after the Pandemic Outbreak: Analyzing the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona through the Lens of Equality and Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-23, July.
    3. Álvarez-Antelo, David & Lauer, Arthur & Capellán-Pérez, Íñigo, 2024. "Exploring the potential of a novel passenger transport model to study the decarbonization of the transport sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    4. Paweł Brzustewicz & Anupam Singh, 2021. "Sustainable Consumption in Consumer Behavior in the Time of COVID-19: Topic Modeling on Twitter Data Using LDA," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-20, September.
    5. Downey, Lucy & Fonzone, Achille & Fountas, Grigorios & Semple, Torran, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on future public transport use in Scotland," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 338-352.
    6. Xiaoyan Mu & Xiaohu Zhang & Anthony Gar-On Yeh & Yang Yu & Jiejing Wang, 2023. "Structural Changes in Human Mobility Under the Zero-COVID Strategy in China," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 50(9), pages 2527-2542, November.
    7. Patino-Artaza, Helena & King, Lewis C. & Savin, Ivan, 2024. "Did COVID-19 really change our lifestyles? Evidence from transport energy consumption in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
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    9. Vega-Gonzalo, Maria & Gomez, Juan & Christidis, Panayotis, 2023. "How has COVID-19 changed private car use in European urban areas? An analysis of the effect of socio-economic characteristics and mobility habits," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    10. Christidis, Panayotis & Navajas Cawood, Elena & Fiorello, Davide, 2022. "Challenges for urban transport policy after the Covid-19 pandemic: Main findings from a survey in 20 European cities," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 105-116.

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