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The impact of COVID-19 on future public transport use in Scotland

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  • Downey, Lucy
  • Fonzone, Achille
  • Fountas, Grigorios
  • Semple, Torran

Abstract

This paper examines the determinants of changes in future public transport use in Scotland after the COVID-19 pandemic. An online questionnaire was distributed to 994 Scottish residents in order to identify travel habits, attitudes and preferences during the different phases of the COVID-19 outbreak and travel intentions after the pandemic. Quota constraints were enforced for age, gender and household income to ensure the sample was representative of the Scottish population. The respondents indicated that they anticipated they would make less use of buses and trains at the end of the pandemic. Over a third expect to use buses (36%) and trains (34%) less, whilst a quarter expect to drive their cars more. As part of the analysis, a random parameter bivariate probit model with heterogeneity in the means of random parameters was estimated to provide insights into the socio-demographic, behavioural and perceptual factors which might affect future public transport usage. The inclusion of random parameters allows for the potential effects of unobserved heterogeneity within the independent variables to be captured, whilst making allowances for heterogeneity in the means of the random parameters. The model estimation showed that several factors, including pre-lockdown travel choices, perceived risk of COVID-19 infection, household size and region significantly affected intended future use of public transport. In addition, several variables related to age, region, pre-lockdown travel choices and employment status resulted in random parameters. The current paper contributes to our understanding of the potential loss of demand for public transport and the consequences for future equitable and sustainable mobility. Our findings are highly relevant for transport policy when developing measures to strengthen the resilience of the public transport system during and after the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Downey, Lucy & Fonzone, Achille & Fountas, Grigorios & Semple, Torran, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on future public transport use in Scotland," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 338-352.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:163:y:2022:i:c:p:338-352
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2022.06.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Li, Xinghua & Yang, Yueyi & Guo, Yuntao & Souders, Dustin & Li, Jian, 2023. "Understanding the role of risk perception and health measures in ridesourcing usage in the post-COVID-19 era," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    7. Gorji, Mohammad-Ali & Shetab-Boushehri, Seyyed-Nader & Akbarzadeh, Meisam, 2023. "Evaluation and improvement of the resilience of a transportation system against epidemic diseases: A system dynamics approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 27-44.
    8. Haiyan Liu & Jaeyoung Lee, 2023. "Contributing Factors to the Changes in Public and Private Transportation Mode Choice after the COVID-19 Outbreak in Urban Areas of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-21, March.
    9. Pengxiang Ding & Suwei Feng & Jianning Jiang, 2023. "The Impact of Urban Rail Transit Epidemic Prevention Measures on Passengers’ Safety Perception," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-17, February.
    10. Faber, R.M. & de Haas, M.C. & Molin, E.J.E. & Kroesen, M., 2024. "Investigating changes in within-person effects between attitudes and travel behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
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