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Earthquake Evacuation Choice and Management in a Developing Archipelagic Country—A Case Study of Surigao City, Philippines

Author

Listed:
  • Sherwin Roy Calumba

    (Civil Engineering Department, De La Salle University, Metro Manila 1004, Philippines)

  • Monorom Rith

    (School of Civil Engineering and Technology, Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Thammasat University, Pathum Thani 12120, Thailand
    The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok 10140, Thailand)

  • Alexis M. Fillone

    (Civil Engineering Department, De La Salle University, Metro Manila 1004, Philippines)

Abstract

The Philippines is a developing archipelagic country in Southeast Asia. The country is susceptible to multiple natural disasters, specifically earthquakes. This implies the significance of understanding earthquake evacuation choice in order to design effective planning and management of evacuation to minimize chaos, damage cost, and the loss of lives. This study investigated the determinants of earthquake evacuation and proposed earthquake evacuation planning and management in the Philippines, featuring the case study of Surigao City. The study used the primary dataset of 1055 observations gathered in 2019 and applied the nested logit model (NLM) to investigate the potential factors of earthquake evacuation decisions. We considered three output variables: evacuation choice, evacuation duration, and travel mode choice. We found that residents were more likely to evacuate their homes upon receiving an earthquake warning and move to a public shelter or open space. Additionally, respondents were more inclined to leave their homes when their houses suffered from moderate to severe/complete damage or when electricity and water supply were cut-off. Respondents were most likely to walk to evacuation centers as the majority of residents initially moved to the nearest open space immediately after an earthquake and stayed in an open space for less than 6 hours. No correlation was found between personal and household income factors with evacuation choice and travel mode choice. Furthermore, the study used the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to determine areas suitable for earthquake evacuation using insights from local government officials and planners. The areas identified for earthquake evacuation were developed to support evacuation planning and management.

Suggested Citation

  • Sherwin Roy Calumba & Monorom Rith & Alexis M. Fillone, 2021. "Earthquake Evacuation Choice and Management in a Developing Archipelagic Country—A Case Study of Surigao City, Philippines," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-24, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:11:p:5783-:d:559267
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555, September.
    2. Ma. Bernadeth B. Lim & Hector R. Lim & Mongkut Piantanakulchai & Francis Aldrine Uy, 2016. "A household-level flood evacuation decision model in Quezon City, Philippines," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1539-1561, February.
    3. Florian Heiss, 2002. "Structural choice analysis with nested logit models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 2(3), pages 227-252, August.
    4. Arne Henningsen & Ott Toomet, 2011. "maxLik: A package for maximum likelihood estimation in R," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 443-458, September.
    5. Ma. Lim & Hector Lim & Mongkut Piantanakulchai & Francis Uy, 2016. "A household-level flood evacuation decision model in Quezon City, Philippines," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1539-1561, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hector R. Lim & Ma. Bernadeth B. Lim & Ann Wendy M. Rojas, 2022. "Towards modelling of evacuation behavior and planning for emergency logistics due to the Philippine Taal Volcanic eruption in 2020," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(1), pages 553-581, October.

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