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Predictive Modeling of Transport Infrastructure Space for Urban Growth Phenomena in Developing Countries’ Cities: A Case Study of Kano — Nigeria

Author

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  • Suleiman Hassan Otuoze

    (Department of Civil Engineering, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston B15-2TT, UK
    Department of Civil Engineering, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria 810107, Nigeria)

  • Dexter V. L. Hunt

    (Department of Civil Engineering, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston B15-2TT, UK)

  • Ian Jefferson

    (Department of Civil Engineering, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston B15-2TT, UK)

Abstract

Global urbanization has the most tremendous negative effects on the changing landscapes in many developing countries’ cities. It is necessary to develop appropriate monitoring techniques for tracking transport space evolution. The work explores the impacts of urban growth dynamics of transport space over the past decades as a basis for predicting future space demands in Kano, Nigeria. Three epochs of Landsat images from 1984, 2013 and 2019 were processed, classified and analyzed. Spatial classifications of land-use/land-cover (LULC) types in Kano include transport space, built-up areas, vegetation, farmland, bare land and water. The data analysis involves model calibration, validation and prediction using areas using the hybrid modeling techniques—cellular automata-Markov (CA-Markov) in IDIRISI SELVA 17.0 and remote-sensing ARC-GIS 10.7 softwares. The result finds significant expansion of transport and built-up areas while other LULC receded throughout the entire study period. Predictive modeling of transport infrastructure shows spatial expansion by 345 km 2 (3.9%) and 410 km 2 (11.7%) in 2030 and 2050 respectively. Kappa reliability indices of agreement ( K IA ) classified images and ground maps were 85%, 86% and 88%, respectively, for 1984, 2013 and 2019 time series. The calibration quality met the 80% minimum suggested in literature for the spatial-temporal track and prediction of urban growth phenomena.

Suggested Citation

  • Suleiman Hassan Otuoze & Dexter V. L. Hunt & Ian Jefferson, 2020. "Predictive Modeling of Transport Infrastructure Space for Urban Growth Phenomena in Developing Countries’ Cities: A Case Study of Kano — Nigeria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-20, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2020:i:1:p:308-:d:473041
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chen Liping & Sun Yujun & Sajjad Saeed, 2018. "Monitoring and predicting land use and land cover changes using remote sensing and GIS techniques—A case study of a hilly area, Jiangle, China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(7), pages 1-23, July.
    2. Bhagawat Rimal & Lifu Zhang & Nigel Stork & Sean Sloan & Sushila Rijal, 2018. "Urban Expansion Occurred at the Expense of Agricultural Lands in the Tarai Region of Nepal from 1989 to 2016," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-19, April.
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