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Geospatial Simulation Model of Deforestation and Reforestation Using Multicriteria Evaluation

Author

Listed:
  • Sergio Alberto Monjardin-Armenta

    (Facultad de Ciencias de la Tierra y el Espacio, Universidad Autonoma de Sinaloa, Culiacan 80013, Mexico)

  • Wenseslao Plata-Rocha

    (Facultad de Ciencias de la Tierra y el Espacio, Universidad Autonoma de Sinaloa, Culiacan 80013, Mexico)

  • Carlos Eduardo Pacheco-Angulo

    (Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Ambientales, Universidad de los Andes, Merida 5110, Venezuela)

  • Cuauhtémoc Franco-Ochoa

    (Facultad de Ciencias de la Tierra y el Espacio, Universidad Autonoma de Sinaloa, Culiacan 80013, Mexico)

  • Jesus Gabriel Rangel-Peraza

    (Division de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigacion, Tecnologico Nacional de Mexico—Instituto Tecnologico de Culiacan, Culiacan 80013, Mexico)

Abstract

Deforestation is an anthropic phenomenon that negatively affects the environment and therefore the climate, the carbon cycle, biodiversity and the sustainability of agriculture and drinking water sources. Deforestation is counteracted by reforestation processes, which is caused by the natural regeneration of forests or by the establishment of plantations. The present research is focused on generating a simulation model to predict the deforestation and reforestation for 2030 and 2050 using geospatial analysis techniques and multicriteria evaluation. The case study is the North Pacific Basin, which is one of the areas with the greatest loss of forest cover in Mexico. The results of the spatial analysis of forest dynamics determined that the forest area in 2030 would be 98,713.52 km 2 , while in 2050 would be 101,239.8 km 2 . The mean annual deforestation and reforestation expected in the study area is 115 and 193.84 km 2 , for the 2014–2030 period, while mean annual deforestation and reforestation values of 95 and 221.31 km 2 are expected for the 2030–2050 period. Therefore, considering the forest cover predicted by the deforestation and reforestation model, a carbon capture of 16,209.67 ton/C was estimated for the 2014–2030 period and 587,596.01 ton/C for the 2030–2050.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Alberto Monjardin-Armenta & Wenseslao Plata-Rocha & Carlos Eduardo Pacheco-Angulo & Cuauhtémoc Franco-Ochoa & Jesus Gabriel Rangel-Peraza, 2020. "Geospatial Simulation Model of Deforestation and Reforestation Using Multicriteria Evaluation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-20, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:24:p:10387-:d:460825
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lidia Yadira Perez-Aguilar & Wenseslao Plata-Rocha & Sergio Alberto Monjardin-Armenta & Cuauhtémoc Franco-Ochoa, 2022. "Aridity Analysis Using a Prospective Geospatial Simulation Model in This Mid-Century for the Northwest Region of Mexico," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-22, November.
    2. María Alejandra Quintero-Morales & Wenseslao Plata-Rocha & Sergio Alberto Monjardín-Armenta & Vicente Olimón-Andalón & Edith Hilario Torres-Montoya, 2021. "Geospatial Simulation Model of Sustainable Mangrove Development Scenarios for the Years 2030 and 2050 in Marismas Nacionales, Mexico," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-19, August.

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