IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v11y2019i16p4390-d257363.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Development of a Cost Forecasting Model for Air Cargo Service Delay Due to Low Visibility

Author

Listed:
  • Hee Kyung Kim

    (GTB Center, School of Business, Hanyang University, Seoul 04763, Korea)

  • Chang Won Lee

    (School of Business, Hanyang University, Seoul 04763, Korea)

Abstract

The air cargo market is growing due to the spread of information technology (IT) products, the expansion of e-commerce, and high value-added products. Weather deterioration is one factor with a substantial impact on cargo transportation. If the arrival of cargo is delayed, supply chain delays occur. Because delays are directly linked to costs, companies need precise predictions of cargo transportation. This study develops a forecasting model to predict delay times and costs caused by the delayed arrival of cargo due to severe weather in the air cargo service environment. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model is developed and analyzed to address delay reductions in cargo transportation. Necessary data are identified and collected using time series data provided by Incheon International Airport Corporation, with an emphasis on monthly data on cargo throughput at Incheon International Airport from January 2009 to December 2016. The model makes forecasts for further analysis. The model stands to provide decision makers with strategic and sustainable insights for cargo transportation planning and other similar applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Hee Kyung Kim & Chang Won Lee, 2019. "Development of a Cost Forecasting Model for Air Cargo Service Delay Due to Low Visibility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-14, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:16:p:4390-:d:257363
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/16/4390/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/16/4390/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lange, Anne, 2019. "Does cargo matter? The impact of air cargo operations on departure on-time performance for combination carriers," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 214-223.
    2. Alexander, David W. & Merkert, Rico, 2017. "Challenges to domestic air freight in Australia: Evaluating air traffic markets with gravity modelling," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 41-52.
    3. Wang, Fan & Zhuo, Xiaopo & Niu, Baozhuang, 2017. "Strategic entry to regional air cargo market under joint competition of demand and promised delivery time," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 317-336.
    4. Hong, Seock-Jin & Randall, Wesley & Han, Keunsoo & Malhan, Amit Sundeep, 2018. "Estimation viability of dedicated freighter aircraft of combination carriers: A data envelopment and principal component analysis," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 12-20.
    5. Chang, Yu-Hern & Yeh, Chung-Hsing & Wang, Shih-Yi, 2007. "A survey and optimization-based evaluation of development strategies for the air cargo industry," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 550-562, April.
    6. Alkaabi, Khaula A. & Debbage, Keith G., 2011. "The geography of air freight: connections to U.S. metropolitan economies," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1517-1529.
    7. Kasilingam, R. G., 1997. "Air cargo revenue management: Characteristics and complexities," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 36-44, January.
    8. Malandri, Caterina & Mantecchini, Luca & Reis, Vasco, 2019. "Aircraft turnaround and industrial actions: How ground handlers' strikes affect airport airside operational efficiency," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 23-32.
    9. Rondinelli, Dennis & Berry, Michael, 2000. "Multimodal transportation, logistics, and the environment: managing interactions in a global economy," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 398-410, August.
    10. Boonekamp, Thijs & Burghouwt, Guillaume, 2017. "Measuring connectivity in the air freight industry," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 81-94.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. To, Wai Ming & Lee, Peter K.C., 2024. "Modeling of the COVID-19 impact on air passenger traffic in the US, European countries, and China," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    2. Carman K.M. Lee & Shuzhu Zhang & Kam K.H. Ng, 2019. "Design of An Integration Model for Air Cargo Transportation Network Design and Flight Route Selection," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-12, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Van Asch, Thomas & Dewulf, Wouter & Kupfer, Franziska & Cárdenas, Ivan & Van de Voorde, Eddy, 2020. "Cross-border e-commerce logistics – Strategic success factors for airports," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Carman K.M. Lee & Shuzhu Zhang & Kam K.H. Ng, 2019. "Design of An Integration Model for Air Cargo Transportation Network Design and Flight Route Selection," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-12, September.
    3. Choi, Jong Hae, 2023. "The value of time and the impact on the air freight product portfolio - A study of the South Korean market 2017–2021," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    4. He, Hang & Wu, Hanjun & Tsui, Kan Wai Hong & Wang, Biao & Fu, Xiaowen, 2024. "Spatiotemporal evolution of air cargo networks and its impact on economic development - An analysis of China's domestic market before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    5. Jong Hae Choi & Yong Hwa Park, 2020. "Investigating Paradigm Shift from Price to Value in the Air Cargo Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-15, December.
    6. Bo Feng & Jixin Zhao & Zheyu Jiang, 2022. "Robust pricing for airlines with partial information," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 310(1), pages 49-87, March.
    7. Lotti, Raoni & Caetano, Mauro, 2018. "The airport choice of exporters for fruit from Brazil," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 104-112.
    8. Hong, Seock-Jin & Kim, Woongyi & Niranjan, Suman, 2023. "Challenges to the air cargo business of combination carriers: Analysis of two major Korean Airlines," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    9. Deng, Yu & Zhang, Yahua & Wang, Kun, 2022. "An analysis of the Chinese scheduled freighter network during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    10. Chen, Zhe & Jiang, Hai, 2020. "Impacts of high-speed rail on domestic air cargo traffic in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 1-13.
    11. Khezrimotlagh, Dariush & Kaffash, Sepideh & Zhu, Joe, 2022. "U.S. airline mergers’ performance and productivity change," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    12. Sören Wallbach & Katrin Coleman & Ralf Elbert & Alexander Benlian, 2019. "Multi-sided platform diffusion in competitive B2B networks: inhibiting factors and their impact on network effects," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 29(4), pages 693-710, December.
    13. Alexander, D.W. & Merkert, R., 2021. "Applications of gravity models to evaluate and forecast US international air freight markets post-GFC," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 52-62.
    14. Lei Xu & Govindan Kannan & Xiaoli Yang & Jian Li & Xiukun Zhao, 2013. "Pricing and Allotment in a Sea-Cargo Supply Chain with Reference Effect: A Dynamic Game Approach," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2013, pages 1-10, March.
    15. Mayer, Robert, 2016. "Airport classification based on cargo characteristics," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 53-65.
    16. Enrico Massaroni & Alessandra Cozzolino & Mario Calabrese & Ewa Wankowicz & Maura Fiore, 2016. "Reporting di sostenibilit? degli operatori logistici in Europa: analisi degli indicatori," ECONOMIA E DIRITTO DEL TERZIARIO, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2016(2), pages 303-334.
    17. Chen, Bo & Zhang, Xiandong, 2019. "Scheduling with time-of-use costs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(3), pages 900-908.
    18. Kannan, Devika & Jabbour, Ana Beatriz Lopes de Sousa & Jabbour, Charbel José Chiappetta, 2014. "Selecting green suppliers based on GSCM practices: Using fuzzy TOPSIS applied to a Brazilian electronics company," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(2), pages 432-447.
    19. Li, Siping & Zhou, Yaoming & Kundu, Tanmoy & Zhang, Fangni, 2021. "Impact of entry restriction policies on international air transport connectivity during COVID-19 pandemic," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    20. Rivera-Gonzalez, Carlos & Amaral, Julia C., 2024. "Assessment of freight accessibility in New York City: A spatial-temporal approach," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:16:p:4390-:d:257363. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.