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Stochastic Analysis of Embodied Carbon Dioxide Emissions Considering Variability of Construction Sites

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  • Dongyoun Lee

    (School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, Korea University, 145, Anam-ro, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, Korea)

  • Goune Kang

    (Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, 283 Goyang-daero, Ilsanseo-gu, Goyang, Gyeonggi 10223, Korea)

  • Chulu Nam

    (Deajeon-Sejong-Chungnam Headquarters, Korea Electric Power Corporation, 170, Songchonnam-ro 11beon-gil, Dong-gu, Daejeon 34537, Korea)

  • Hunhee Cho

    (School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, Korea University, 145, Anam-ro, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, Korea)

  • Kyung-In Kang

    (School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, Korea University, 145, Anam-ro, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, Korea)

Abstract

The current method of estimating CO 2 emissions during the construction phase does not consider the variability that can occur in actual work. Therefore, this study aims at probabilistic CO 2 estimation dealing with the statistical characteristics in activity data of building construction work, focused on concrete pouring work and based on field data. The probabilistically estimated CO 2 emissions have some differences from CO 2 emissions measured by current deterministic methods. The results revealed that the minimum difference was 11.4%, and the maximum difference was 132.7%. This study also used Monte Carlo simulations to derive information on a probability model of CO 2 emissions. Results of the analysis revealed that there is a risk of underestimating emissions because the amount of emissions was estimated at a level that exceeds the 95% confidence interval of the simulation results. In addition, the probability that CO 2 emissions using the measured activities data were less than the estimated CO 2 emissions using the bill of quantity was 73.2% in the probability distribution model.

Suggested Citation

  • Dongyoun Lee & Goune Kang & Chulu Nam & Hunhee Cho & Kyung-In Kang, 2019. "Stochastic Analysis of Embodied Carbon Dioxide Emissions Considering Variability of Construction Sites," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-12, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:15:p:4215-:d:254719
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Geng, Shengnan & Wang, Yuan & Zuo, Jian & Zhou, Zhihua & Du, Huibin & Mao, Guozhu, 2017. "Building life cycle assessment research: A review by bibliometric analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 176-184.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aylin Ece Kayabekir & Zülal Akbay Arama & Gebrail Bekdaş & Sinan Melih Nigdeli & Zong Woo Geem, 2020. "Eco-Friendly Design of Reinforced Concrete Retaining Walls: Multi-objective Optimization with Harmony Search Applications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-30, July.
    2. Marinella Giunta & Dario Lo Bosco & Giovanni Leonardi & Francesco Scopelliti, 2019. "Estimation of Gas and Dust Emissions in Construction Sites of a Motorway Project," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-14, December.
    3. Muhandiramge Nimashi Navodana Rodrigo & Srinath Perera & Sepani Senaratne & Xiaohua Jin, 2021. "Review of Supply Chain Based Embodied Carbon Estimating Method: A Case Study Based Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-20, August.
    4. Víctor Yepes & José V. Martí & José García, 2020. "Black Hole Algorithm for Sustainable Design of Counterfort Retaining Walls," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-18, April.

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