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Population Aging and Decline Will Happen Sooner Than We Think

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  • Jonathan R. Guillemot

    (Instituto de Medicina Social & Desafíos Globales, Escuela de Salud Pública, Colegio de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad San Francisco de Quito USFQ, Campus Cumbayá, Casilla Postal 17-1200-8414, Quito 170901, Ecuador)

  • Xue Zhang

    (Department of City and Regional Planning, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA)

  • Mildred E. Warner

    (Department of City and Regional Planning, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA
    Department of Global Development, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA)

Abstract

The United Nations’ 2022 World Population Prospects suggests the global population will reach 10 billion people in 2058 and will peak in 2086. Aggregated data do not account for regional and age-group realities, which draw a more pressing picture. We analyze the World Population Prospects 2022 data according to age groups and regions and show that population peaks are going to occur sooner in some regions of the world than others, and the working-age population will peak on average 10 to 20 years before the overall population peaks. Africa is the only world region expected to continue to experience significant population growth. The population will be increasingly made up of larger proportions of older ages than younger, thereby shifting the dependency ratio. Reflections on the implications of an aging and shrinking population on policy regarding fertility, aging, migration, urban planning and economic development are needed. The challenge is not to be left for future generations to face; it is happening tomorrow.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan R. Guillemot & Xue Zhang & Mildred E. Warner, 2024. "Population Aging and Decline Will Happen Sooner Than We Think," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-11, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jscscx:v:13:y:2024:i:4:p:190-:d:1364673
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philip McCann, 2017. "Urban futures, population ageing and demographic decline," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 10(3), pages 543-557.
    2. John B. Casterline & John Bongaarts & Parfait Eloundou-Enyegue & Sarah Giroux & Michel Tenikue, 2017. "African Transitions and Fertility Inequality: A Demographic Kuznets Hypothesis," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 43, pages 59-83, May.
    3. Laura Blue & Thomas J. Espenshade, 2011. "Population Momentum Across the Demographic Transition," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(4), pages 721-747, December.
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