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The demographic window of opportunity and economic growth at sub-national level in 91 developing countries

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  • Crombach, Lamar Gerard Alfons

    (KOF Swiss Economic Institute ETH Zürich)

  • Smits, Jeroen

Abstract

Data for 91 low- and middle- income countries (LMICs) are used to investigate the effect of the demographic transition on economic growth at sub-national level. We introduce a detailed classification of demographic window (DW) phases, determine how these phases are distributed among and within LMICs, and analyze the relationship between the DW and economic growth for 1,921 urban and rural areas of sub-national regions. Many regions in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East have entered the window, but most of sub-Saharan Africa is still in the traditional or pre-window phase. Multilevel analyses reveal higher growth rates in areas with lower and decreasing dependency ratios. Demographic effects are stronger in rural, more developed and more educated regions. Findings indicate that, in the coming years, the DW might strengthen economic growth in rural areas of LMICs, and particularly if accompanied by investments in education and rural development.

Suggested Citation

  • Crombach, Lamar Gerard Alfons & Smits, Jeroen, 2020. "The demographic window of opportunity and economic growth at sub-national level in 91 developing countries," SocArXiv pytqe_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:pytqe_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/pytqe_v1
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