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Mathematical Model for Choosing Counterparty When Assessing Information Security Risks

Author

Listed:
  • Andrey Koltays

    (Department of Complex Information Security of Computer Systems, Tomsk State University of Control Systems and Radioelectronics, 634050 Tomsk, Russia)

  • Anton Konev

    (Department of Complex Information Security of Computer Systems, Tomsk State University of Control Systems and Radioelectronics, 634050 Tomsk, Russia)

  • Alexander Shelupanov

    (Department of Complex Information Security of Computer Systems, Tomsk State University of Control Systems and Radioelectronics, 634050 Tomsk, Russia)

Abstract

The need to assess the risks of the trustworthiness of counterparties is increasing every year. The identification of increasing cases of unfair behavior among counterparties only confirms the relevance of this topic. The existing work in the field of information and economic security does not create a reasonable methodology that allows for a comprehensive study and an adequate assessment of a counterparty (for example, a developer company) in the field of software design and development. The purpose of this work is to assess the risks of a counterparty’s trustworthiness in the context of the digital transformation of the economy, which in turn will reduce the risk of offenses and crimes that constitute threats to the security of organizations. This article discusses the main methods used in the construction of a mathematical model for assessing the trustworthiness of a counterparty. The main difficulties in assessing the accuracy and completeness of the model are identified. The use of cross-validation to eliminate difficulties in building a model is described. The developed model, using machine learning methods, gives an accurate result with a small number of compared counterparties, which corresponds to the order of checking a counterparty in a real system. The results of calculations in this model show the possibility of using machine learning methods in assessing the risks of counterparty trustworthiness.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrey Koltays & Anton Konev & Alexander Shelupanov, 2021. "Mathematical Model for Choosing Counterparty When Assessing Information Security Risks," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-13, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:9:y:2021:i:7:p:133-:d:593514
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bellotti, Anthony & Brigo, Damiano & Gambetti, Paolo & Vrins, Frédéric, 2021. "Forecasting recovery rates on non-performing loans with machine learning," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 428-444.
    2. Michele Bonollo & Luca Di Persio & Luca Mammi & Immacolata Oliva, 2017. "Estimating the Counterparty Risk Exposure by using the Brownian Motion Local Time," Papers 1704.03244, arXiv.org.
    3. Saaty, Thomas L., 1990. "How to make a decision: The analytic hierarchy process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 9-26, September.
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