IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jrisks/v8y2020i1p22-d326934.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prediction of Claims in Export Credit Finance: A Comparison of Four Machine Learning Techniques

Author

Listed:
  • Mathias Bärtl

    (Hochschule für Technik, Wirtschaft und Medien Offenburg, 77652 Offenburg, Germany)

  • Simone Krummaker

    (Faculty of Actuarial Science and Insurance, Cass Business School, University of London, London EC1Y8TZ, UK)

Abstract

This study evaluates four machine learning (ML) techniques (Decision Trees (DT), Random Forests (RF), Neural Networks (NN) and Probabilistic Neural Networks (PNN)) on their ability to accurately predict export credit insurance claims. Additionally, we compare the performance of the ML techniques against a simple benchmark (BM) heuristic. The analysis is based on the utilisation of a dataset provided by the Berne Union, which is the most comprehensive collection of export credit insurance data and has been used in only two scientific studies so far. All ML techniques performed relatively well in predicting whether or not claims would be incurred, and, with limitations, in predicting the order of magnitude of the claims. No satisfactory results were achieved predicting actual claim ratios. RF performed significantly better than DT, NN and PNN against all prediction tasks, and most reliably carried their validation performance forward to test performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathias Bärtl & Simone Krummaker, 2020. "Prediction of Claims in Export Credit Finance: A Comparison of Four Machine Learning Techniques," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:8:y:2020:i:1:p:22-:d:326934
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/8/1/22/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/8/1/22/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Filip Abraham & Gerda Dewit, 2000. "Export Promotion Via Official Export Insurance," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 5-26, January.
    2. David Thesmar & David Sraer & Lisa Pinheiro & Nick Dadson & Razvan Veliche & Paul Greenberg, 2019. "Combining the Power of Artificial Intelligence with the Richness of Healthcare Claims Data: Opportunities and Challenges," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 37(6), pages 745-752, June.
    3. Jane Korinek & Jean Le Cocguic & Patricia Sourdin, 2010. "The Availability and Cost of Short-Term Trade Finance and its Impact on Trade," OECD Trade Policy Papers 98, OECD Publishing.
    4. Koen J. M. van der Veer, 2015. "The Private Export Credit Insurance Effect on Trade," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 82(3), pages 601-624, September.
    5. Christoph Moser & Thorsten Nestmann & Michael Wedow, 2008. "Political Risk and Export Promotion: Evidence from Germany," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(6), pages 781-803, June.
    6. Wanke, Peter & Barros, Carlos Pestana, 2016. "Efficiency drivers in Brazilian insurance: A two-stage DEA meta frontier-data mining approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 8-22.
    7. Koen J. M. van der Veer, 2019. "Loss Shocks in Export Credit Insurance Markets: Evidence From a Global Insurance Group," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 86(1), pages 73-102, March.
    8. Claveria, Oscar & Torra, Salvador, 2014. "Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: Neural networks vs. time series models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 220-228.
    9. Marc Auboin & Martina Engemann, 2014. "Testing the trade credit and trade link: evidence from data on export credit insurance," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(4), pages 715-743, November.
    10. Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Erdal Yalcin, 2013. "Export Credit Guarantees and Export Performance: An Empirical Analysis for Germany," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(8), pages 967-999, August.
    11. Verrall, Richard & Hössjer, Ola & Björkwall, Susanna, 2012. "Modelling Claims Run-Off with Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(1), pages 35-58, May.
    12. Susan Athey, 2018. "The Impact of Machine Learning on Economics," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 507-547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Sendhil Mullainathan & Jann Spiess, 2017. "Machine Learning: An Applied Econometric Approach," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 87-106, Spring.
    14. England, P.D. & Verrall, R.J., 2002. "Stochastic Claims Reserving in General Insurance," British Actuarial Journal, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 443-518, August.
    15. Auboin, Marc, 2009. "Restoring trade finance during a period of financial crisis: Stocktaking of recent initiatives," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2009-16, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    16. Peter Egger & Thomas Url, 2006. "Public Export Credit Guarantees and Foreign Trade Structure: Evidence from Austria," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 399-418, April.
    17. repec:idb:brikps:8293 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Mario V. Wüthrich, 2018. "Machine learning in individual claims reserving," Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2018(6), pages 465-480, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vali Asimit & Ioannis Kyriakou & Jens Perch Nielsen, 2020. "Special Issue “Machine Learning in Insurance”," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-2, May.
    2. Petr Suler & Zuzana Rowland & Tomas Krulicky, 2021. "Evaluation of the Accuracy of Machine Learning Predictions of the Czech Republic’s Exports to the China," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-30, February.
    3. Nelson Kemboi Yego & Juma Kasozi & Joseph Nkurunziza, 2021. "A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models for the Prediction of Insurance Uptake in Kenya," Data, MDPI, vol. 6(11), pages 1-17, November.
    4. Evaggelia Siopi & Thomas Poufinas & James Ming Chen & Charalampos Agiropoulos, 2023. "Can Regulation Affect the Solvency of Insurers? New Evidence from European Insurers," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 29(1), pages 15-30, May.
    5. Dawud Thongtha & Nathakhun Wiroonsri, 2023. "Normal Approximation for Fire Incident Simulation Using Permanental Cox Processes," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 1-20, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Agarwal, Natasha & Chan, Jackie M.L. & Lodefalk, Magnus & Tang, Aili & Tano, Sofia & Wang, Zheng, 2023. "Mitigating information frictions in trade: Evidence from export credit guarantees," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Duc Bao Nguyen & Anne‐Gaël Vaubourg, 2021. "Financial intermediation, trade agreements and international trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 788-817, March.
    3. Thomas Url, 2016. "Gesamtwirtschaftliche Auswirkungen der Exportgarantien in Österreich," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58839, January.
    4. Natasha Agarwal & Zheng Wang, 2018. "Does the US EXIM Bank really promote US exports?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 1378-1414, May.
    5. Auboin, Marc & DiCaprio, Alisa, 2016. "Why do trade finance gaps persist: Does it matter for trade and development?," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2017-01, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    6. Hyelin Choi & Kyunghun Kim, 2021. "Effect of Export Credit Insurance on Export Performance: An Empirical Analysis of Korea," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 413-433, December.
    7. Ben Jelili Riadh, 2020. "Do Default Loss Risks Matter for Arab Exports? Evidence from a Gravity Modelling Approach," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 16(3), pages 1-22, December.
    8. Auboin, Marc & Smythe, Harry & Teh, Robert, 2016. "Supply chain finance and SMEs: Evidence from international factoring data," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2016-04, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    9. Brandi, Clara & Schmitz, Birgit, 2015. "Trade flows in developing countries: what is the role of trade finance?," IDOS Discussion Papers 13/2015, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    10. Ali Polat & Mehmet Yesilyaprak, 2017. "Export Credit Insurance and Export Performance: An Empirical Gravity Analysis for Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(8), pages 12-24, August.
    11. Harald Badinger & Thomas Url, 2013. "Export Credit Guarantees and Export Performance: Evidence from Austrian Firm-level Data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1115-1130, September.
    12. Johannes Van Biesebroeck & Jozef Konings & Christian Volpe Martincus, 2016. "Did export promotion help firms weather the crisis?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(88), pages 653-702.
    13. Zheng, J., 2012. "Essays on pensions, health expectancy and credit insurance," Other publications TiSEM 922b794a-7d11-4463-9843-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Inga Heiland & Erdal Yalcin, 2021. "Export market risk and the role of state credit guarantees," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 25-72, February.
    15. Marc Auboin & Harry Smythe & Robert Teh, 2016. "Supply Chain Finance and SMEs: Evidence from International Factoring Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 6039, CESifo.
    16. Kemal Turkcan, 2016. "Evolving Patterns of Payment Methods in Turkish Foreign Trade," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 2(1), pages 3-29, June.
    17. Marc Auboin & Martina Engemann, 2014. "Testing the trade credit and trade link: evidence from data on export credit insurance," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(4), pages 715-743, November.
    18. Hea-Jung Hyun & Jung Hur, 2021. "Global Financial Crisis, Export Credit Insurance, and Scope Adjustment of Multiproduct Exporting Firms," Working Papers 2106, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    19. Harald Badinger & Thomas Url, 2014. "Users and Effects of Austrian Export Credit Guarantees," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(03), pages 39-44, August.
    20. Arup Chatterjee & Arjun Goswami & Jules Hugot & Marianne Vital, 2020. "The Case for Regional Cooperation in Trade and Investment Finance for Asia," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 11(3), pages 367-374, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:8:y:2020:i:1:p:22-:d:326934. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.