IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/worlde/v31y2008i6p781-803.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Political Risk and Export Promotion: Evidence from Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Christoph Moser
  • Thorsten Nestmann
  • Michael Wedow

Abstract

Political risk represents an important hidden transaction cost that reduces international trade. This paper investigates the claim that public export credit guarantees mitigate this friction to trade flows and hence promote exports. We employ an empirical trade gravity model, where we explicitly control for political risk in the importing country in order to evaluate the effect of export guarantees. Using a novel data set on guarantees, we estimate the effect of guarantees in a static and dynamic panel model. We find a statistically and economically significant positive effect of public export guarantees on exports which indicates that export promotion is indeed effective. Furthermore, political risk turns out to be an important obstacle for exports and hence should be taken into account in any empirical model of trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Moser & Thorsten Nestmann & Michael Wedow, 2008. "Political Risk and Export Promotion: Evidence from Germany," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(6), pages 781-803, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:31:y:2008:i:6:p:781-803
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2008.01102.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2008.01102.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2008.01102.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Portes, Richard & Rey, Helene, 2005. "The determinants of cross-border equity flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 269-296, March.
    2. repec:dgr:rugsom:03f07 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Elhanan Helpman, 1999. "The Structure of Foreign Trade," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 121-144, Spring.
    4. Filip Abraham & Gerda Dewit, 2000. "Export Promotion Via Official Export Insurance," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 5-26, January.
    5. Dewit, Gerda, 2001. "Intervention in risky export markets: insurance, strategic action or aid?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 575-592, September.
    6. Andrew K. Rose, 2004. "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 98-114, March.
    7. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    8. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, April.
    9. Paul Rienstra-Munnicha & Calum G. Turvey, 2002. "The Relationship between Exports, Credit Risk and Credit Guarantees," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 50(3), pages 281-296, November.
    10. Pierre‐Guillaume Méon & Khalid Sekkat, 2004. "Does the Quality of Institutions Limit the MENA's Integration in the World Economy?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(9), pages 1475-1498, September.
    11. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    12. Alsem, K.J., 2003. "Insurability of export credit risks," Research Report 03F07, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    13. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    14. Andrew K. Rose, 2007. "The Foreign Service and Foreign Trade: Embassies as Export Promotion," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 22-38, January.
    15. James E. Anderson & Douglas Marcouiller, 2002. "Insecurity And The Pattern Of Trade: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 342-352, May.
    16. Volker Nitsch, 2007. "State Visits and International Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(12), pages 1797-1816, December.
    17. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2004. "Why Some Firms Export," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 561-569, May.
    18. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
    19. Jacques Mélitz & Patrick Messerlin, 1987. "Export Credit Subsidies," Post-Print hal-03393236, HAL.
    20. Peter Egger & Thomas Url, 2006. "Public Export Credit Guarantees and Foreign Trade Structure: Evidence from Austria," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 399-418, April.
    21. Andrew Bernard & Joachim Wagner, 2001. "Export entry and exit by German firms," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 137(1), pages 105-123, March.
    22. Salvador Gil & Rafael Llorca & José A. Martínez Serrano, 2008. "Measuring the impact of regional export promotion: The Spanish case," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(1), pages 139-146, March.
    23. Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2005. "Estimating Long and Short Run Effects in Static Panel Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 199-214.
    24. Funatsu, Hideki, 1986. "Export Credit Insurance and Moral Hazard," 商学討究 (Shogaku Tokyu), Otaru University of Commerce, vol. 36(3), pages 217-235.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christian Volpe Martincus & Jerónimo Carballo, 2010. "Is Export Promotion Effective in Developing Countries? Firm-Level Evidence on the Intensive and Extensive Margins of Exports," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 36763, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Zheng, J., 2012. "Essays on pensions, health expectancy and credit insurance," Other publications TiSEM 922b794a-7d11-4463-9843-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Volpe Martincus, Christian & Carballo, Jerónimo, 2008. "Is export promotion effective in developing countries? Firm-level evidence on the intensive and the extensive margins of exports," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 89-106, September.
    4. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2009. "Economic Diplomacy and the Geography of International Trade," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13518.
    5. Thomas Url, 2016. "Gesamtwirtschaftliche Auswirkungen der Exportgarantien in Österreich," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58839.
    6. (ed.), 0. "Research Handbook on Economic Diplomacy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 16053.
    7. Christian Volpe Martincus & Jeronimo Carballo & Andres Gallo, 2011. "The impact of export promotion institutions on trade: is it the intensive or the extensive margin?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 127-132.
    8. Johannes Van Biesebroeck & Jozef Konings & Christian Volpe Martincus, 2016. "Did export promotion help firms weather the crisis?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(88), pages 653-702.
    9. Christian Volpe Martincus & Antoni Estevadeordal & Andrés Gallo & Jessica Luna, 2010. "Information barriers, export promotion institutions, and the extensive margin of trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(1), pages 91-111, April.
    10. Yongjian Li & Xueping Zhen & Xiaoqiang Cai, 2016. "Trade credit insurance, capital constraint, and the behavior of manufacturers and banks," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 240(2), pages 395-414, May.
    11. Agarwal, Natasha & Chan, Jackie M.L. & Lodefalk, Magnus & Tang, Aili & Tano, Sofia & Wang, Zheng, 2023. "Mitigating information frictions in trade: Evidence from export credit guarantees," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    12. Ben Jelili Riadh, 2020. "Do Default Loss Risks Matter for Arab Exports? Evidence from a Gravity Modelling Approach," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 16(3), pages 1-22, December.
    13. Salvador Gil-Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero & José Martínez-Serrano & Francisco Requena-Silvente, 2015. "Regional export promotion offices and trade margins," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 151(1), pages 145-167, February.
    14. Salvador Gil-Pareja, 2011. "Do nonreciprocal preference regimes increase exports?," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1561, European Regional Science Association.
    15. Gil-Pareja, Salvador & Llorca-Vivero, Rafael & Martínez-Serrano, José Antonio, 2014. "Do nonreciprocal preferential trade agreements increase beneficiaries' exports?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 291-304.
    16. Hyelin Choi & Kyunghun Kim, 2021. "Effect of Export Credit Insurance on Export Performance: An Empirical Analysis of Korea," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 413-433, December.
    17. Christian Volpe Martincus & Jeronimo Carballo & Andres Gallo, 2011. "The impact of export promotion institutions on trade: is it the intensive or the extensive margin?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 127-132.
    18. Fuchs, Michaela & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2008. "Institutions, trade, and integration: what can be expected within the enlarged EU?," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 16/08, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    19. Gabriel Felbermayr & Inga Heiland & Erdal Yalcin & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2012. "Mitigating Liquidity Constraints: Public Export Credit Guarantees in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 3908, CESifo.
    20. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:31:y:2008:i:6:p:781-803. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0378-5920 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.