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Non-Performing Loans and Macroeconomics Factors: The Italian Case

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  • Matteo Foglia

    (Department of Economics, “G. d’Annunzio” University of Pescara, Viale Pindaro 42, 65127 Pescara, Italy)

Abstract

The purpose of this work is to investigate the influence of macroeconomics determinants on non-performing loans (NPLs) in the Italian banking system over the period 2008Q3–2020Q4. We mainly contribute to the literature by being the first empirical article to study this relationship in the Italian context in the recent period, thus providing fresh evidence on the macroeconomic impact on NPLs, i.e., on the credit risk of Italian banks. By employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration model, we are able to investigate the short and long-run effects of macroeconomic factors on NPLs. The empirical findings show that gross domestic product and public debt have a negative impact on NPLs. On the other hand, we find that the unemployment rate and domestic credit positively influence impaired loans. Finally, we find evidence of the “gamble for resurrection” approach, i.e., Italian banks tend to support “zombie firms”.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Foglia, 2022. "Non-Performing Loans and Macroeconomics Factors: The Italian Case," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-13, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:10:y:2022:i:1:p:21-:d:723008
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    3. Maria Karadima & Helen Louri, 2022. "Government debt accumulation and non-performing loans: An ARDL bounds testing approach," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 150-160.
    4. Popova, Polina, 2024. "COVID‑19, corporate non-performing loans, and corporate lending dynamics: Evidence from Russian regions," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 76, pages 5-28.
    5. Chafic Saliba & Panteha Farmanesh & Seyed Alireza Athari, 2023. "Does country risk impact the banking sectors’ non-performing loans? Evidence from BRICS emerging economies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-30, December.
    6. Blessing Katuka & Calvin Mudzingiri & Edson Vengesai, 2023. "The effects of non-performing loans on bank stability and economic performance in Zimbabwe," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 13(6), pages 393-405.
    7. Aleksandra Ostrowska, 2023. "Makroekonomiczne determinanty jakości kredytów dla sektora niefinansowego w Polsce," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 54(5), pages 541-556.
    8. George ANTON & Cosmin-Octavian CEPOI & Cătălin-Emilian HUIDUMAC-PETRESCU, 2022. "Estimating Probability of Default for Systemically Important Financial Institutions during Covid-19 Pandemic. Evidence from Europe and USA," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 44-53, April.

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