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Resource Criticality and Commodity Production Projections

Author

Listed:
  • Damien Giurco

    (Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney, Ultimo 2007, Australia)

  • Steve Mohr

    (Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney, Ultimo 2007, Australia
    Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Clayton 3800, Australia)

  • Gavin Mudd

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Clayton 3800, Australia)

  • Leah Mason

    (Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney, Ultimo 2007, Australia)

  • Timothy Prior

    (Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney, Ultimo 2007, Australia
    Center for Security Studies, ETH Zürich, Zuerich 8092, Switzerland)

Abstract

Resource criticality arising from peak production of primary ores is explored in this paper. We combine the Geologic Resource Supply-Demand Model of Mohr [1] to project future resource production for selected commodities in Australia, namely iron and coal which together represent around 50% of the value of total Australian exports as well as copper, gold and lithium. The projections (based on current estimates of ultimately recoverable reserves) indicate that peak production in Australia would occur for lithium in 2015; for gold in 2021; for copper in 2024; for iron in 2039 and for coal in 2060. The quantitative analysis is coupled with the criticality framework for peak minerals of Mason et al. [2] comprising (i) resource availability, (ii) societal resource addiction to commodity use, and (iii) alternatives such as dematerialization or substitution to assess the broader dimension s of peak minerals production for Australia.

Suggested Citation

  • Damien Giurco & Steve Mohr & Gavin Mudd & Leah Mason & Timothy Prior, 2012. "Resource Criticality and Commodity Production Projections," Resources, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jresou:v:1:y:2012:i:1:p:23-33:d:22343
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G.M., 2011. "Long term forecasting of natural gas production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5550-5560, September.
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    2. Eko Sulistiyono & Sri Harjanto & Latifa Hanum Lalasari, 2022. "Separation of Magnesium and Lithium from Brine Water and Bittern Using Sodium Silicate Precipitation Agent," Resources, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-12, September.

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