IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v9y2021i7p784-d530560.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Automatic Tempered Posterior Distributions for Bayesian Inversion Problems

Author

Listed:
  • Luca Martino

    (Department of Signal Processing, Universidad rey Juan Carlos (URJC), 28942 Madrid, Spain)

  • Fernando Llorente

    (Department of Statistics, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (UC3M), 28911 Madrid, Spain)

  • Ernesto Curbelo

    (Department of Statistics, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (UC3M), 28911 Madrid, Spain)

  • Javier López-Santiago

    (Department of Signal Processing, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (UC3M), 28911 Madrid, Spain)

  • Joaquín Míguez

    (Department of Signal Processing, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (UC3M), 28911 Madrid, Spain)

Abstract

We propose a novel adaptive importance sampling scheme for Bayesian inversion problems where the inference of the variables of interest and the power of the data noise are carried out using distinct (but interacting) methods. More specifically, we consider a Bayesian analysis for the variables of interest (i.e., the parameters of the model to invert), whereas we employ a maximum likelihood approach for the estimation of the noise power. The whole technique is implemented by means of an iterative procedure with alternating sampling and optimization steps. Moreover, the noise power is also used as a tempered parameter for the posterior distribution of the the variables of interest. Therefore, a sequence of tempered posterior densities is generated, where the tempered parameter is automatically selected according to the current estimate of the noise power. A complete Bayesian study over the model parameters and the scale parameter can also be performed. Numerical experiments show the benefits of the proposed approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Martino & Fernando Llorente & Ernesto Curbelo & Javier López-Santiago & Joaquín Míguez, 2021. "Automatic Tempered Posterior Distributions for Bayesian Inversion Problems," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-17, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:9:y:2021:i:7:p:784-:d:530560
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/7/784/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/9/7/784/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pierre Del Moral & Arnaud Doucet & Ajay Jasra, 2006. "Sequential Monte Carlo samplers," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(3), pages 411-436, June.
    2. N. Friel & A. N. Pettitt, 2008. "Marginal likelihood estimation via power posteriors," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(3), pages 589-607, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Curbelo Benitez, Ernesto Angel & Martino, Luca & Llorente Fernandez, Fernando, 2023. "Adaptive posterior distributions for covariance matrix learning in Bayesian inversion problems for multioutput signals," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 37391, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5724 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Drovandi, Christopher C. & McGree, James M. & Pettitt, Anthony N., 2013. "Sequential Monte Carlo for Bayesian sequentially designed experiments for discrete data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 320-335.
    3. Calderhead, Ben & Girolami, Mark, 2009. "Estimating Bayes factors via thermodynamic integration and population MCMC," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(12), pages 4028-4045, October.
    4. Perrakis, Konstantinos & Ntzoufras, Ioannis & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2014. "On the use of marginal posteriors in marginal likelihood estimation via importance sampling," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 54-69.
    5. Lefebvre, Geneviève & Steele, Russell & Vandal, Alain C., 2010. "A path sampling identity for computing the Kullback-Leibler and J divergences," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1719-1731, July.
    6. Mathias Drton & Martyn Plummer, 2017. "A Bayesian information criterion for singular models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 79(2), pages 323-380, March.
    7. Xing Ju Lee & Christopher C. Drovandi & Anthony N. Pettitt, 2015. "Model choice problems using approximate Bayesian computation with applications to pathogen transmission data sets," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 198-207, March.
    8. S. G. J. Senarathne & C. C. Drovandi & J. M. McGree, 2020. "Bayesian sequential design for Copula models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 29(2), pages 454-478, June.
    9. Arnaud Dufays, 2016. "Evolutionary Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers for Change-Point Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-33, March.
    10. Jeong Eun Lee & Christian Robert, 2013. "Imortance Sampling Schemes for Evidence Approximation in Mixture Models," Working Papers 2013-42, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    11. Fleischhacker, Jan, 2024. "Fiscal policy and the business cycle: An argument for non-linear policy rules," MPRA Paper 122497, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. James Martin & Ajay Jasra & Emma McCoy, 2013. "Inference for a class of partially observed point process models," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 65(3), pages 413-437, June.
    13. Will Penny & Biswa Sengupta, 2016. "Annealed Importance Sampling for Neural Mass Models," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(3), pages 1-25, March.
    14. Spezia, L. & Cooksley, S.L. & Brewer, M.J. & Donnelly, D. & Tree, A., 2014. "Modelling species abundance in a river by Negative Binomial hidden Markov models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 599-614.
    15. Mark Bognanni & John Zito, 2019. "Sequential Bayesian Inference for Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility," Working Papers 19-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    16. Vitoratou, Silia & Ntzoufras, Ioannis & Moustaki, Irini, 2016. "Explaining the behavior of joint and marginal Monte Carlo estimators in latent variable models with independence assumptions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 57685, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Saifuddin Syed & Alexandre Bouchard‐Côté & George Deligiannidis & Arnaud Doucet, 2022. "Non‐reversible parallel tempering: A scalable highly parallel MCMC scheme," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 84(2), pages 321-350, April.
    18. Brignone, Riccardo & Gonzato, Luca & Lütkebohmert, Eva, 2023. "Efficient Quasi-Bayesian Estimation of Affine Option Pricing Models Using Risk-Neutral Cumulants," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    19. Lee Anthony & Caron Francois & Doucet Arnaud & Holmes Chris, 2012. "Bayesian Sparsity-Path-Analysis of Genetic Association Signal using Generalized t Priors," Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular Biology, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 1-31, January.
    20. Edward Herbst & Frank Schorfheide, 2014. "Sequential Monte Carlo Sampling For Dsge Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(7), pages 1073-1098, November.
    21. Spezia, Luigi, 2020. "Bayesian variable selection in non-homogeneous hidden Markov models through an evolutionary Monte Carlo method," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:9:y:2021:i:7:p:784-:d:530560. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.