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Non-Linear Macroeconomic Models of Growth with Memory

Author

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  • Vasily E. Tarasov

    (Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow 119991, Russia
    Faculty of Information Technologies and Applied Mathematics, Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University), Moscow 125993, Russia)

Abstract

In this article, two well-known standard models with continuous time, which are proposed by two Nobel laureates in economics, Robert M. Solow and Robert E. Lucas, are generalized. The continuous time standard models of economic growth do not account for memory effects. Mathematically, this is due to the fact that these models describe equations with derivatives of integer orders. These derivatives are determined by the properties of the function in an infinitely small neighborhood of the considered time. In this article, we proposed two non-linear models of economic growth with memory, for which equations are derived and solutions of these equations are obtained. In the differential equations of these models, instead of the derivative of integer order, fractional derivatives of non-integer order are used, which allow describing long memory with power-law fading. Exact solutions for these non-linear fractional differential equations are obtained. The purpose of this article is to study the influence of memory effects on the rate of economic growth using the proposed simple models with memory as examples. As the methods of this study, exact solutions of fractional differential equations of the proposed models are used. We prove that the effects of memory can significantly (several times) change the growth rate, when other parameters of the model are unchanged.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasily E. Tarasov, 2020. "Non-Linear Macroeconomic Models of Growth with Memory," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-22, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:8:y:2020:i:11:p:2078-:d:448820
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tarasov, Vasily E. & Tarasova, Valentina V., 2018. "Macroeconomic models with long dynamic memory: Fractional calculus approach," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 338(C), pages 466-486.
    2. Rudolf Hilfer & Yuri Luchko, 2019. "Desiderata for Fractional Derivatives and Integrals," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-5, February.
    3. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    4. Banerjee, Anindya & Urga, Giovanni, 2005. "Modelling structural breaks, long memory and stock market volatility: an overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 1-34.
    5. Vasily E. Tarasov, 2019. "Rules for Fractional-Dynamic Generalizations: Difficulties of Constructing Fractional Dynamic Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(6), pages 1-50, June.
    6. Valentina V. Tarasova & Vasily E. Tarasov, 2017. "Economic Growth Model with Constant Pace and Dynamic Memory," Papers 1701.06299, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2019.
    7. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
    8. Vasily E. Tarasov, 2019. "On History of Mathematical Economics: Application of Fractional Calculus," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(6), pages 1-28, June.
    9. Vasily E. Tarasov, 2020. "Mathematical Economics: Application of Fractional Calculus," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-3, April.
    10. Gilles Teyssière & Alan P. Kirman (ed.), 2007. "Long Memory in Economics," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-34625-8, December.
    11. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Javier Hualde, 2009. "Fractional Integration and Cointegration: An Overview and an Empirical Application," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Terence C. Mills & Kerry Patterson (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, chapter 10, pages 434-469, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. C. W. J. Granger & Roselyne Joyeux, 1980. "An Introduction To Long‐Memory Time Series Models And Fractional Differencing," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, January.
    13. Tarasov, Vasily E., 2020. "Fractional econophysics: Market price dynamics with memory effects," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 557(C).
    14. William R. Parke, 1999. "What Is Fractional Integration?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 632-638, November.
    15. Solow, Robert M., 1999. "Neoclassical growth theory," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 637-667, Elsevier.
    16. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Ameen, Ismail Gad & Baleanu, Dumitru & Ali, Hegagi Mohamed, 2022. "Different strategies to confront maize streak disease based on fractional optimal control formulation," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
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    5. Bazán Navarro, Ciro Eduardo & Benazic Tomé, Renato Mario, 2024. "Qualitative behavior in a fractional order IS-LM-AS macroeconomic model with stability analysis," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 425-443.

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