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An Efficient Framework for Adequacy Evaluation through Extraction of Rare Load Curtailment Events in Composite Power Systems

Author

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  • Amir Abdel Menaem

    (Electrical Engineering Department, Mansoura University, Mansoura 35516, Egypt
    Department of Automated Electric Systems, Ural Power Engineering Institute, Ural Federal University, 620002 Yekaterinburg, Russia)

  • Rustam Valiev

    (Department of Automated Electric Systems, Ural Power Engineering Institute, Ural Federal University, 620002 Yekaterinburg, Russia)

  • Vladislav Oboskalov

    (Department of Automated Electric Systems, Ural Power Engineering Institute, Ural Federal University, 620002 Yekaterinburg, Russia
    Science and Engineering Center “Reliability and Safety of Large Systems and Machines” UB RAS, 620002 Yekaterinburg, Russia)

  • Taher S. Hassan

    (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University of Ha’il, Ha’il 2440, Saudi Arabia
    Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Mansoura University, Mansoura 35516, Egypt)

  • Hegazy Rezk

    (College of Engineering at Wadi Addawaser, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Wadi Aldawaser 11991, Saudi Arabia
    Electrical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Minia University, Minia 61111, Egypt)

  • Mohamed N. Ibrahim

    (Electrical Engineering Department, Kafrelshiekh University, Kafr El-Sheikh 33511, Egypt
    Department of Electromechanical, Systems and Metal Engineering, Ghent University, 9000 Ghent, Belgium
    FlandersMake@UGent–corelab EEDT-MP, 3001 Leuven, Belgium)

Abstract

With the growing robustness of modern power systems, the occurrence of load curtailment events is becoming lower. Hence, the simulation of these events constitutes a challenge in adequacy indices assessment. Due to the rarity of the load curtailment events, the standard Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) estimator of adequacy indices is not practical. Therefore, a framework based on the enhanced cross-entropy-based importance sampling (ECE-IS) method is introduced in this paper for computing the adequacy indices. The framework comprises two stages. Using the proposed ECE-IS method, the first stage’s purpose is to identify the samples or states of the nodal generation and load that are greatly significant to the adequacy indices estimators. In the second stage, the density of the input variables’ conditional on the load curtailment domain obtained by the first stage are used to compute the nodal and system adequacy indices. The performance of the ECE-IS method is verified through a comparison with the standard MCS method and the recent techniques of rare events simulation in literature. The results confirm that the proposed method develops an accurate estimation for the nodal and system adequacy indices (loss of load probability (LOLP), expected power not supplied (EPNS)) with appropriate convergence value and low computation time.

Suggested Citation

  • Amir Abdel Menaem & Rustam Valiev & Vladislav Oboskalov & Taher S. Hassan & Hegazy Rezk & Mohamed N. Ibrahim, 2020. "An Efficient Framework for Adequacy Evaluation through Extraction of Rare Load Curtailment Events in Composite Power Systems," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-21, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:8:y:2020:i:11:p:2021-:d:444359
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zhe Zhang & Hang Yang & Xianggen Yin & Jiexiang Han & Yong Wang & Guoyan Chen, 2018. "A Load-Shedding Model Based on Sensitivity Analysis in on-Line Power System Operation Risk Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17, March.
    2. Nannapaneni, Saideep & Mahadevan, Sankaran, 2020. "Probability-space surrogate modeling for fast multidisciplinary optimization under uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    3. Anna Kalinina & Matteo Spada & David F. Vetsch & Stefano Marelli & Calvin Whealton & Peter Burgherr & Bruno Sudret, 2020. "Metamodeling for Uncertainty Quantification of a Flood Wave Model for Concrete Dam Breaks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-25, July.
    4. Cao, Quoc Dung & Choe, Youngjun, 2019. "Cross-entropy based importance sampling for stochastic simulation models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Hasan M. Salman & Jagadeesh Pasupuleti & Ahmad H. Sabry, 2023. "Review on Causes of Power Outages and Their Occurrence: Mitigation Strategies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-34, October.

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