IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v8y2020i11p1904-d438200.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty in the Connectedness of Cross-Country Stock Market Volatilities

Author

Listed:
  • Mudassar Hasan

    (Lahore Business School, The University of Lahore, Lahore 54000, Pakistan)

  • Muhammad Abubakr Naeem

    (School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, Palmerston North 4442, New Zealand
    Business Administration Department, Faculty of Management Sciences, ILMA University, Karachi 75190, Pakistan)

  • Muhammad Arif

    (Department of Business Administration, Shaheed Benazir Bhutto University, Shaheed Benazirabad 67450, Pakistan)

  • Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad

    (Finance, Control and Law Department, Montpellier Business School, 34080 Montpellier, France
    Department of Accounting, Analysis and Audit, South Ural State University, Chelyabinsk 454080, Russia)

  • Safwan Mohd Nor

    (Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Development, University of Malaysia Terengganu, Kuala Nerus 21030, Terengganu, Malaysia
    Victoria Institute of Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia)

Abstract

The implied volatility index is a forward-looking indicator of fear among stock market participants. We examine the extent to which the connectedness of fear among global stock markets is driven by the cross-country connectedness of economic policy uncertainty (EPU). We use data on stock market fear and EPU indices for 13 countries, which spans from January 2011 to December 2018. To measure the connectedness among stock market fear and EPU of our sample countries, we employ two connectedness models. A cross-sectional regression model is further employed to ascertain the extent to which EPU connectedness between two countries explains the connectedness of fear between their stock markets, while controlling for bilateral linkage and country-specific factors. We find that EPU connectedness between any two partner countries significantly drives the connectedness of fear between their stock markets. The driving potential not only holds for short- and long-term connectedness, but also after controlling for bilateral linkages (bilateral trade, geographical distance, common language) and country-specific (trade and financial openness of the transmitter country) factors indicating robustness in our results.

Suggested Citation

  • Mudassar Hasan & Muhammad Abubakr Naeem & Muhammad Arif & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Safwan Mohd Nor, 2020. "Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty in the Connectedness of Cross-Country Stock Market Volatilities," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-17, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:8:y:2020:i:11:p:1904-:d:438200
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/8/11/1904/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/8/11/1904/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    2. Balli, Faruk & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Mudassar, Hasan & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2017. "Cross-country determinants of economic policy uncertainty spillovers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 179-183.
    3. Ansgar Belke & Irina Dubova & Thomas Osowski, 2018. "Policy uncertainty and international financial markets: the case of Brexit," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(34-35), pages 3752-3770, July.
    4. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2016. "Determinants of global spillovers from US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 41-61.
    5. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "International monetary policy spillovers: Evidence from a time-varying parameter vector autoregression," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Tsai, I-C., 2014. "Spillover of fear: Evidence from the stock markets of five developed countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 281-288.
    7. Libo Yin & Liyan Han, 2014. "Spillovers of macroeconomic uncertainty among major economies," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(13), pages 938-944, September.
    8. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan & Plakandaras, Vasilios, 2018. "Dynamic connectedness of uncertainty across developed economies: A time-varying approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 63-75.
    9. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    10. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2009. "Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(6), pages 739-759, December.
    11. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    12. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    13. Liow, Kim Hiang & Liao, Wen-Chi & Huang, Yuting, 2018. "Dynamics of international spillovers and interaction: Evidence from financial market stress and economic policy uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 96-116.
    14. Thomas J Flavin & Margaret J Hurley & Fabrice Rousseau, 2002. "Explaining Stock Market Correlation: A Gravity Model Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(S1), pages 87-106.
    15. Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "On the transmission mechanism of country-specific and international economic uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from a TVP-VAR connectedness decomposition approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 63-71.
    16. Tsai, I-Chun, 2017. "The source of global stock market risk: A viewpoint of economic policy uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 122-131.
    17. Lu Fang & David A. Bessler, 2018. "Is it China that leads the Asian stock market contagion in 2015?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(11), pages 752-757, June.
    18. BenSaïda, Ahmed & Litimi, Houda & Abdallah, Oussama, 2018. "Volatility spillover shifts in global financial markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 343-353.
    19. Bracker, Kevin & Docking, Diane Scott & Koch, Paul D., 1999. "Economic determinants of evolution in international stock market integration," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 1-27, January.
    20. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Hosseini, Seyedmehdi & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2018. "Does global fear predict fear in BRICS stock markets? Evidence from a Bayesian Graphical Structural VAR model," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 124-142.
    21. Ji, Qiang & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David, 2018. "Dynamic network of implied volatility transmission among US equities, strategic commodities, and BRICS equities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1-12.
    22. Ngene, Geoffrey & Post, Jordin A. & Mungai, Ann N., 2018. "Volatility and shock interactions and risk management implications: Evidence from the U.S. and frontier markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 181-198.
    23. Bekaert, Geert & Mehl, Arnaud, 2019. "On the global financial market integration “swoosh” and the trilemma," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 227-245.
    24. repec:bla:manchs:v:70:y:2002:i:0:p:87-106 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Ihsan U. Badshah, 2018. "Volatility Spillover from the Fear Index to Developed and Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(1), pages 27-40, January.
    26. Sang Hoon Kang & Seong-Min Yoon, 2019. "Dynamic connectedness network in economic policy uncertainties," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 74-78, January.
    27. Hui-Chu Shu & Jung-Hsien Chang, 2019. "Spillovers of volatility index: evidence from U.S., European, and Asian stock markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(19), pages 2070-2083, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cagli, Efe Caglar & Mandaci, Pinar Evrim, 2023. "Time and frequency connectedness of uncertainties in cryptocurrency, stock, currency, energy, and precious metals markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    2. OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Hammed A. Olayinka & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2024. "Dynamic connectedness of economic policy uncertainty in G7 countries and the influence of the USA and UK on non-G7 countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1-27, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muhammad Abubakr Naeem & Mudassar Hasan & Abraham Agyemang & Md Iftekhar Hasan Chowdhury & Faruk Balli, 2023. "Time‐frequency dynamics between fear connectedness of stocks and alternative assets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 2188-2201, April.
    2. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2020. "Spillover among financial, industrial and consumer uncertainties. The case of EU member states," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    3. Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Spillovers across macroeconomic, financial and real estate uncertainties: A time-varying approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 167-173.
    4. Dogah, Kingsley E., 2021. "Effect of trade and economic policy uncertainties on regional systemic risk: Evidence from ASEAN," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    5. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Jacobus A. Nel & Xin Sheng, 2020. "Monetary policy uncertainty spillovers in time and frequency domains," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-30, December.
    6. Nong, Huifu, 2021. "Have cross-category spillovers of economic policy uncertainty changed during the US–China trade war?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Liew, Ping-Xin & Lim, Kian-Ping & Goh, Kim-Leng, 2022. "The dynamics and determinants of liquidity connectedness across financial asset markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 341-358.
    8. He, Feng & Wang, Ziwei & Yin, Libo, 2020. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers between international economic policy uncertainty and the U.S. stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    9. Cui Jinxin & Zou Huiwen, 2020. "Connectedness Among Economic Policy Uncertainties: Evidence from the Time and Frequency Domain Perspectives," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 8(5), pages 401-433, October.
    10. Zhou, Yuqin & Liu, Zhenhua & Wu, Shan, 2022. "The global economic policy uncertainty spillover analysis: In the background of COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    11. Christopher Thiem, 2020. "Cross-Category, Trans-Pacific Spillovers of Policy Uncertainty and Financial Market Volatility," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 317-342, April.
    12. Balli, Faruk & Hasan, Mudassar & Ozer-Balli, Hatice & Gregory-Allen, Russell, 2021. "Why do U.S. uncertainties drive stock market spillovers? International evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 288-301.
    13. Jiang, Yonghong & Zhu, Zixuan & Tian, Gengyu & Nie, He, 2019. "Determinants of within and cross-country economic policy uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from US and China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    14. Liu, Peipei & Huang, Wei-Qiang, 2024. "Spatial analysis of sovereign risk from the perspective of EPU spillovers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 427-443.
    15. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "Greek economic policy uncertainty: Does it matter for Europe? Evidence from a dynamic connectedness decomposition approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    16. Nikolaos Antonakakis & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Greek Economic Policy Uncertainty: Does it Matter for the European Union?," Working Papers 201840, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    17. Dai, Zhifeng & Peng, Yongxin, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market sector time-varying spillover effect: Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    18. Gong, Yuting & He, Zhongzhi & Xue, Wenjun, 2022. "EPU spillovers and stock return predictability: A cross-country study," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    19. Niels Gillmann & Ostap Okhrin, 2023. "Adaptive local VAR for dynamic economic policy uncertainty spillover," Papers 2302.02808, arXiv.org.
    20. Yuting Gong & Zhongzhi He & Wenjun Xue, 2023. "EPU spillovers and sovereign CDS spreads: A cross‐country study," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(12), pages 1770-1806, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:8:y:2020:i:11:p:1904-:d:438200. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.