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Impact of Demographic Developments and PCV13 Vaccination on the Future Burden of Pneumococcal Diseases in Germany—An Integrated Probabilistic Differential Equation Approach

Author

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  • Myka Harun Sarajan

    (Institute for Medical Epidemiology, Biometry and Informatics (IMEBI), Interdisciplinary Centre for Health Sciences, Medical Faculty of the Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Magdeburger Str. 8, 06112 Halle (Saale), Germany)

  • Kahkashan Mahreen

    (Institute for Medical Epidemiology, Biometry and Informatics (IMEBI), Interdisciplinary Centre for Health Sciences, Medical Faculty of the Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Magdeburger Str. 8, 06112 Halle (Saale), Germany)

  • Patrizio Vanella

    (Demography Cluster, Department of Health Monitoring & Biometrics, aQua Institute, Maschmühlenweg 8-10, 37073 Göttingen, Germany
    Chair of Empirical Methods in Social Science and Demography, University of Rostock, Ulmenstr. 69, 18057 Rostock, Germany
    Working Group on Demographic Methods, German Demographic Society, c/o Federal Institute for Population Research, Friedrich-Ebert-Allee 4, 65185 Wiesbaden, Germany)

  • Alexander Kuhlmann

    (Institute for Medical Epidemiology, Biometry and Informatics (IMEBI), Interdisciplinary Centre for Health Sciences, Medical Faculty of the Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Magdeburger Str. 8, 06112 Halle (Saale), Germany)

Abstract

Streptococcus pneumonia is the primary cause of morbidity and mortality in infants and children globally. Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) incidence is affected by various risk factors such as age and comorbidities. Additionally, this bacterium is a major cause of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), leading to higher rates of hospitalization, especially among older adults. Vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) has proven effective, but the demographic transition in Germany poses a challenge. This study introduces a novel stochastic approach by integrating a population forecast model into a transmission dynamic model to investigate the future burden of pneumococcal diseases in three age groups (0–4, 5–59, and 60 and older). Our simulations, presented through mean predictions and 75% prediction intervals, indicate that implementing PCV13 (13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine) until the year 2050 results in reduced cases of IPD and CAP in all age groups compared to scenarios without infant vaccination. However, cases with non-vaccine serotypes may persist at higher levels compared to scenarios without infant vaccination. Consequently, there may be a need for improvement in the current national vaccine policy, such as implementing the use of higher-valent PCVs and strengthening adult vaccination uptake.

Suggested Citation

  • Myka Harun Sarajan & Kahkashan Mahreen & Patrizio Vanella & Alexander Kuhlmann, 2024. "Impact of Demographic Developments and PCV13 Vaccination on the Future Burden of Pneumococcal Diseases in Germany—An Integrated Probabilistic Differential Equation Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-21, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:6:p:796-:d:1353744
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Soetaert, Karline & Petzoldt, Thomas & Setzer, R. Woodrow, 2010. "Solving Differential Equations in R: Package deSolve," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 33(i09).
    2. Joël Mossong & Niel Hens & Mark Jit & Philippe Beutels & Kari Auranen & Rafael Mikolajczyk & Marco Massari & Stefania Salmaso & Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba & Jacco Wallinga & Janneke Heijne & Malgorzata Sa, 2008. "Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(3), pages 1-1, March.
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    1. Patrizio Vanella & Christina Benita Wilke & Moritz Heß, 2024. "Long-Term Care in Germany in the Context of the Demographic Transition—An Outlook for the Expenses of Long-Term Care Insurance through 2050," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-20, October.

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