IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v12y2024i20p3184-d1496719.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic Growth Model with Fertility Incentives: A Theoretical Analysis Framework and Policy Simulation for China

Author

Listed:
  • Lei He

    (Hunan Key Laboratory of Macroeconomic Big Data Mining and Its Application, School of Business, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China)

  • Qin Wang

    (Hunan Key Laboratory of Macroeconomic Big Data Mining and Its Application, School of Business, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China)

Abstract

This study presents an overlapping generation model to examine the impact of fertility incentive policies on economic growth in China, incorporating endogenous fertility, education, and technological advancement by integrating unified growth theory with an R&D-based growth model. We analyze the impact of fertility incentive policies on economic growth by evaluating maternity insurance and public education. The results show that increasing the actual contribution rate of maternity insurance, maternity benefits, and public education expenditures can boost China’s fertility rate; nevertheless, extending maternity leave would not incentivize an increase in the fertility rate. The impact of fertility incentives on economic growth is ambiguous, depending upon the extent to which increased fertility dilutes aggregate human capital via technical advancement. If the dilution effect is weak, the sign will turn positive, and vice versa. The simulation analysis of the benchmark model indicates that the fertility incentive policy, which encompasses increasing the actual contribution rate of maternity insurance, maternity benefits, and public education expenditure, can foster economic growth in China by enhancing the fertility rate in the long term.

Suggested Citation

  • Lei He & Qin Wang, 2024. "Economic Growth Model with Fertility Incentives: A Theoretical Analysis Framework and Policy Simulation for China," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-25, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:20:p:3184-:d:1496719
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/20/3184/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/20/3184/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Holger Strulik & Klaus Prettner & Alexia Prskawetz, 2013. "The past and future of knowledge-based growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 411-437, December.
    2. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    3. Ken-ichi Hashimoto & Ken Tabata, 2016. "Demographic change, human capital accumulation and R&D-based growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(2), pages 707-737, May.
    4. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 1991. "Quality Ladders in the Theory of Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(1), pages 43-61.
    5. Segerstrom, Paul S, 1998. "Endogenous Growth without Scale Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1290-1310, December.
    6. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-784, August.
    7. Peretto, Pietro F, 1998. "Technological Change and Population Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 283-311, December.
    8. Alberto Bucci & Klaus Prettner, 2020. "Endogenous education and the reversal in the relationship between fertility and economic growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(3), pages 1025-1068, July.
    9. Leonid Azarnert, 2010. "Free education, fertility and human capital accumulation," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(2), pages 449-468, March.
    10. Peter Howitt, 1999. "Steady Endogenous Growth with Population and R & D Inputs Growing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(4), pages 715-730, August.
    11. Bucci, Alberto, 2013. "Returns to specialization, competition, population, and growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 2023-2040.
    12. Holger Strulik, 2005. "The Role of Human Capital and Population Growth in R&D‐based Models of Economic Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 129-145, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Annarita BALDANZI & Alberto BUCCI & Klaus PRETTNER, 2016. "The Effects of Health Investments on Human Capital and R&D-Driven Economic Growth," Departmental Working Papers 2016-17, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    2. Bharat Diwakar & Gilad Sorek, 2016. "Human-Capital Spillover, Population, and Economic Growth," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2016-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    3. Alberto Bucci & Klaus Prettner, 2020. "Endogenous education and the reversal in the relationship between fertility and economic growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(3), pages 1025-1068, July.
    4. Baldanzi, Annarita & Bucci, Alberto & Prettner, Klaus, 2021. "Children’S Health, Human Capital Accumulation, And R&D-Based Economic Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 651-668, April.
    5. Gehringer, Agnieszka & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "Longevity And Technological Change," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1471-1503, June.
    6. Thomas I. Renström & Luca Spataro, 2015. "Population Growth and Human Capital: A Welfarist Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83, pages 110-141, December.
    7. Bharat Diwakar & Gilad Sorek, 2016. "Life-Cycle Saving, Bequests, and the Role of Population in R&D-based Growth," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2016-05, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    8. Prettner, Klaus & Werner, Katharina, 2016. "Why it pays off to pay us well: The impact of basic research on economic growth and welfare," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 1075-1090.
    9. Gilad Sorek & Bharat Diwakar, 2017. "Weak Scale Effects in Overlapping Generations Economy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 962-969.
    10. Hof, Franz X. & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "The quest for status and R&D-based growth," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 290-307.
    11. Werner, Katharina & Prettner, Klaus, 2014. "Human capital, basic research, and applied research: three dimensions of human knowledge and their differential growth effects," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100448, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Theresa Grafeneder-Weissteiner & Klaus Prettner & Jens Südekum, 2020. "Three Pillars of Urbanization: Migration, Aging, and Growth," De Economist, Springer, vol. 168(2), pages 259-278, June.
    13. Luca Spinesi, 2022. "The Environmental Tax: Effects on Inequality and Growth," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 82(3), pages 529-572, July.
    14. Bharat Diwakar & Gilad Sorek, 2015. "Finite Lifetimes, Population, and Growth," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2015-14, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    15. Steven Bond-Smith & Philip McCann & Les Oxley, 2018. "A regional model of endogenous growth without scale assumptions," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 5-35, January.
    16. repec:got:cegedp:140 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Bloom, David E. et.al., 2013. "Economic impact of non-communicable disease in China and India: Estimates, projections and comparisons," Working Papers 300, Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore.
    18. Frederic Tournemaine & Pongsak Luangaram, 2012. "R&D, human capital, fertility, and growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 923-953, July.
    19. Ruiyang Hu & Yibai Yang & Zhijie Zheng, 2023. "Effects of subsidies on growth and welfare in a quality‐ladder model with elastic labor," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 25(5), pages 1096-1137, October.
    20. Bloom, David E. & Cafiero-Fonseca, Elizabeth T. & McGovern, Mark E. & Prettner, Klaus & Stanciole, Anderson & Weiss, Jonathan & Bakkila, Samuel & Rosenberg, Larry, 2014. "The macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases in China and India: Estimates, projections, and comparisons," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 4(C), pages 100-111.
    21. Richard M. H. Suen, 2013. "Research Policy and U.S. Economic Growth," Working papers 2013-18, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:20:p:3184-:d:1496719. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.