IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/joecag/v4y2014icp100-111.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases in China and India: Estimates, projections, and comparisons

Author

Listed:
  • Bloom, David E.
  • Cafiero-Fonseca, Elizabeth T.
  • McGovern, Mark E.
  • Prettner, Klaus
  • Stanciole, Anderson
  • Weiss, Jonathan
  • Bakkila, Samuel
  • Rosenberg, Larry

Abstract

This study provides estimates of the macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China and India for the period 2012–2030. Our estimates are derived using the World Health Organization’s EPIC model of economic growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply and capital accumulation. We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost of the five main NCDs will total USD 23.03trillion for China and USD 4.58trillion for India (in 2010 USD). For both countries, the most costly domain is cardiovascular disease. Our analyses also reveal that the costs are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China’s higher and steeper income trajectory, and to a lesser extent its older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO’s best buys for addressing the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial.

Suggested Citation

  • Bloom, David E. & Cafiero-Fonseca, Elizabeth T. & McGovern, Mark E. & Prettner, Klaus & Stanciole, Anderson & Weiss, Jonathan & Bakkila, Samuel & Rosenberg, Larry, 2014. "The macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases in China and India: Estimates, projections, and comparisons," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 4(C), pages 100-111.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecag:v:4:y:2014:i:c:p:100-111
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2014.08.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212828X14000206
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeoa.2014.08.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    2. Andrew B. Abel & N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1989. "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19.
    3. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2014. "Disease and Development Revisited," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(6), pages 1355-1366.
    4. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 1991. "Quality Ladders in the Theory of Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(1), pages 43-61.
    5. Viscusi, W Kip & Aldy, Joseph E, 2003. "The Value of a Statistical Life: A Critical Review of Market Estimates throughout the World," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 5-76, August.
    6. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    7. Keller, Wolfgang, 2010. "International Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and Technology Spillovers," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 793-829, Elsevier.
    8. Gary S. Becker & Tomas J. Philipson & Rodrigo R. Soares, 2005. "The Quantity and Quality of Life and the Evolution of World Inequality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 277-291, March.
    9. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Sevilla, Jaypee, 2004. "The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: A Production Function Approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 1-13, January.
    10. Zheng Song & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2011. "Growing Like China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 196-233, February.
    11. World Bank, 2014. "World Development Indicators 2014," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 18237.
    12. Kathleen McGarry, 2004. "Health and Retirement: Do Changes in Health Affect Retirement Expectations?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 39(3).
    13. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    14. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    15. David E. Bloom & Dan Chisholm & Eva Jane-Llopis & Klaus Prettner & Adam Stein & Andrea Feigl, 2011. "From Burden to "Best Buys": Reducing the Economic Impact of Non-Communicable Disease in Low- and Middle-Income Countries," PGDA Working Papers 7511, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    16. Dennis Tao Yang & Junsen Zhang & Shaojie Zhou, 2012. "Why Are Saving Rates So High in China?," NBER Chapters, in: Capitalizing China, pages 249-278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Peretto, Pietro F, 1998. "Technological Change and Population Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 283-311, December.
    18. David N. Weil, 2010. "Endemic Diseases and African Economic Growth: Challenges and Policy Responses-super- †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 19(suppl_3), pages 81-109, November.
    19. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Hu, Linlin & Liu, Yuanli & Mahal, Ajay & Yip, Winnie, 2010. "The contribution of population health and demographic change to economic growth in China and India," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 17-33, March.
    20. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    21. Dwyer, Debra Sabatini & Mitchell, Olivia S., 1999. "Health problems as determinants of retirement: Are self-rated measures endogenous?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 173-193, April.
    22. Kieran McQuinn & Karl Whelan, 2007. "Conditional convergence and the dynamics of the capital-output ratio," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 159-184, June.
    23. Segerstrom, Paul S, 1998. "Endogenous Growth without Scale Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1290-1310, December.
    24. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-784, August.
    25. repec:reg:rpubli:282 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Parente, Stephen L & Prescott, Edward C, 1994. "Barriers to Technology Adoption and Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 298-321, April.
    27. Peter Howitt, 1999. "Steady Endogenous Growth with Population and R & D Inputs Growing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(4), pages 715-730, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tansel, Aysit & Öztürk, Ceyhan & Erdil, Erkan, 2021. "The Impact of Body Mass Index on Growth, Schooling, Productivity, and Savings: A Cross-Country Study," IZA Discussion Papers 14727, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Annarita BALDANZI & Alberto BUCCI & Klaus PRETTNER, 2016. "The Effects of Health Investments on Human Capital and R&D-Driven Economic Growth," Departmental Working Papers 2016-17, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    3. Zheng Shen & Xiaodong Zheng & Yiwen Tan, 2019. "The Spillover Effects of Spousal Chronic Diseases on Married Couples’ Labour Supply: Evidence from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-18, October.
    4. Bloom, David E. & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2018. "Health and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 11939, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Shamal Shivneel Chand & Baljeet Singh & Sanjesh Kumar, 2020. "The economic burden of non-communicable disease mortality in the South Pacific: Evidence from Fiji," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-18, July.
    6. Mark E. McGovern, 2016. "Progress and the Lack of Progress in Addressing Infant Health and Infant Health Inequalities in Ireland during the 20th Century," Economics Working Papers 16-05, Queen's Management School, Queen's University Belfast.
    7. Mark E. McGovern & Aditi Krishna & Victor M. Aguayo & S.V. Subramanian, 2017. "A Review of the Evidence Linking Child Stunting to Economic Outcomes," CHaRMS Working Papers 17-03, Centre for HeAlth Research at the Management School (CHaRMS).
    8. Bloom, David E. & Chen, Simiao & Kuhn, Michael & McGovern, Mark E. & Oxley, Les & Prettner, Klaus, 2020. "The economic burden of chronic diseases: Estimates and projections for China, Japan, and South Korea," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    9. Baldanzi, Annarita & Bucci, Alberto & Prettner, Klaus, 2021. "Children’S Health, Human Capital Accumulation, And R&D-Based Economic Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 651-668, April.
    10. Simiao Chen & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner & David E Bloom, 2018. "The macroeconomic burden of noncommunicable diseases in the United States: Estimates and projections," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(11), pages 1-14, November.
    11. Alberto Bucci & Lorenzo Carbonari & Monia Ranalli & Giovanni Trovato, 2019. "Health and Development," CEIS Research Paper 470, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Mar 2021.
    12. Hiroaki Hayakawa, 2017. "Health-conscious consumer behavior," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bloom, David E. et.al., 2013. "Economic impact of non-communicable disease in China and India: Estimates, projections and comparisons," Working Papers 300, Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore.
    2. Adriana Di Liberto, 2007. "Convergence and Divergence in Neoclassical Growth Models with Human Capital," Economia politica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 289-322.
    3. Gehringer, Agnieszka & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "Longevity And Technological Change," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1471-1503, June.
    4. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    5. Klenow, Peter J. & Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, 2005. "Externalities and Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 817-861, Elsevier.
    6. Stephen Turnovsky, 2000. "Growth in an Open Economy: Some Recent Developments," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0015, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    7. Arkadiusz Kijek & Tomasz Kijek, 2020. "Nonlinear Effects of Human Capital and R&D on TFP: Evidence from European Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-14, February.
    8. Prettner, Klaus & Bloom, David E. & Strulik, Holger, 2013. "Declining fertility and economic well-being: Do education and health ride to the rescue?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 70-79.
    9. Klaus Prettner, 2013. "Population aging and endogenous economic growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 811-834, April.
    10. Bloom, David E. & Chen, Simiao & Kuhn, Michael & McGovern, Mark E. & Oxley, Les & Prettner, Klaus, 2020. "The economic burden of chronic diseases: Estimates and projections for China, Japan, and South Korea," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    11. Frederic Tournemaine & Pongsak Luangaram, 2012. "R&D, human capital, fertility, and growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 923-953, July.
    12. Baldanzi, Annarita & Bucci, Alberto & Prettner, Klaus, 2021. "Children’S Health, Human Capital Accumulation, And R&D-Based Economic Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 651-668, April.
    13. Bergheim, Stefan, 2007. "Pair-wise cointegration in long-run growth models," Research Notes 24, Deutsche Bank Research.
    14. Martin Zagler & Georg Dürnecker, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 397-418, July.
    15. Strulik, Holger & Prettner, Klaus & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2010. "R\&D-based Growth in the Post-modern Era," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-457, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    16. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2007:i:8:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Thomas I. Renström & Luca Spataro, 2015. "Population Growth and Human Capital: A Welfarist Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83, pages 110-141, December.
    18. Amavilah, Voxi Heinrich, 2014. "Knowledge = Technology + Human Capital and the Lucas and Romer Production Functions," MPRA Paper 58847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Annarita BALDANZI & Alberto BUCCI & Klaus PRETTNER, 2016. "The Effects of Health Investments on Human Capital and R&D-Driven Economic Growth," Departmental Working Papers 2016-17, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    20. Joseph Zeira, 2011. "Innovations, patent races and endogenous growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 135-156, June.
    21. Jones, Charles I., 2005. "Growth and Ideas," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 1063-1111, Elsevier.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:joecag:v:4:y:2014:i:c:p:100-111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/the-journal-of-the-economics-of-ageing .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.