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Adaptation to New Climate by an Old Strategy? Modeling Sedentary and Mobile Pastoralism in Semi-Arid Morocco

Author

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  • Korbinian P. Freier

    (Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, KlimaCampus, University of Hamburg, Grindelberg 5, D-20144 Hamburg, Germany)

  • Manfred Finckh

    (Biocentre Klein Flottbek and Botanical Garden, University of Hamburg, Ohnhorststr. 18, D-22609 Hamburg, Germany)

  • Uwe A. Schneider

    (Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, KlimaCampus, University of Hamburg, Grindelberg 5, D-20144 Hamburg, Germany)

Abstract

In a modeling study we examine vulnerability of income from mobile (transhumant) pastoralism and sedentary pastoralism to reduced mean annual precipitation (MAP) and droughts. The study is based on empirical data of a 3410 km 2 research region in southern, semi-arid Morocco. The land use decision model integrates a meta-model of the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) simulator to depict perennial and annual forage plant development. It also includes livestock dynamics and forward-looking decision making under uncertain weather. Mobile livestock in the model moves seasonally, sedentary livestock is restricted to pastures around settlements. For a reduction of MAP by 20%, our model shows for different experimental frequencies of droughts a significant decrease of total income from pastoralism by 8%–19% ( p < 0.05). Looking separately at the two modes of pastoralism, pronounced income losses of 18%–44% ( p < 0.05) show that sedentary pastoralism is much more vulnerable to dryer climate than mobile pastoralism, which is merely affected. Dedicating more pasture area and high quality fodder to mobile pastoralism significantly abates impacts from reduced MAP and droughts on total income by 11% ( p < 0.05). Our results indicate that promotion of mobile pastoralism in semi-arid areas is a valuable option to increase resilience against climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Korbinian P. Freier & Manfred Finckh & Uwe A. Schneider, 2014. "Adaptation to New Climate by an Old Strategy? Modeling Sedentary and Mobile Pastoralism in Semi-Arid Morocco," Land, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-24, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:3:y:2014:i:3:p:917-940:d:38774
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hazell, P. B. R. & Oram, Peter A. & Chaherli, Nabil, 2001. "Managing droughts in the low-rainfall areas of the Middle East and North Africa," EPTD discussion papers 78, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Barbier, Bruno & Bergeron, Gilles, 2001. "Natural resource management in the hillsides of Honduras: bioeconomic modeling at the micro-watershed level," Research reports 123, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Freier, Korbinian P. & Bruggemann, Rainer & Scheffran, Jürgen & Finckh, Manfred & Schneider, Uwe A., 2012. "Assessing the predictability of future livelihood strategies of pastoralists in semi-arid Morocco under climate change," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 371-382.
    4. Thornton, P.K. & van de Steeg, J. & Notenbaert, A. & Herrero, M., 2009. "The impacts of climate change on livestock and livestock systems in developing countries: A review of what we know and what we need to know," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 113-127, July.
    5. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bayarmaa Byambaa & Walter T. de Vries, 2021. "The Production of Pastoral Space: Modeling Spatial Occupation of Grazing Land for Environmental Impact Assessment Using Structural Equation Modeling," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18, February.
    2. Žiga Malek & Peter H. Verburg, 2018. "Adaptation of land management in the Mediterranean under scenarios of irrigation water use and availability," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 821-837, August.

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