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Assessing the predictability of future livelihood strategies of pastoralists in semi-arid Morocco under climate change

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  • Freier, Korbinian P.
  • Bruggemann, Rainer
  • Scheffran, Jürgen
  • Finckh, Manfred
  • Schneider, Uwe A.

Abstract

This study assesses the predictability of future livelihood strategies of transhumant pastoralists in semi-arid Morocco. A decrease in precipitation due to climate change will likely threaten their traditional livelihood strategy. We examine whether the pastoralists explicitly prefer certain alternative strategies or if their reactions will be contingent. Our analysis uses standardized interviews focussing on two aspects: firstly, which resources are necessary for the pastoralists to be able to choose a livelihood strategy? Secondly, to what degree are expectations of well-being satisfied by alternative strategies? To assign levels of predictability to all investigated strategies, we analyze the interviews using simple methods of partial order theory. We find that under perceived precipitation scarcity, 38% of pastoralists would explicitly opt for sedentarity and localized pastoralism as alternative strategy. Unclear preferences are given for 25% of the cases. Considering a policy scenario of enhanced access to education and capital, our analysis indicates commercial pastoralism as dominant alternative. However, such a scenario would increase the share of unclear preferences to 43%, which increases the likelihood of a contingent development. The method we propose can be considered as a mathematical basis for the concept of historical contingency.

Suggested Citation

  • Freier, Korbinian P. & Bruggemann, Rainer & Scheffran, Jürgen & Finckh, Manfred & Schneider, Uwe A., 2012. "Assessing the predictability of future livelihood strategies of pastoralists in semi-arid Morocco under climate change," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 371-382.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:79:y:2012:i:2:p:371-382
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.07.003
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ali Akbar Barati & Milad Zhoolideh & Mostafa Moradi & Eydieh Sohrabi Mollayousef & Christine Fürst, 2022. "Multidimensional poverty and livelihood strategies in rural Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(11), pages 12963-12993, November.
    2. Ghazali, Samane & Zibaei, Mansour & Azadi, Hossein, 2023. "Impact of livelihood strategies and capitals on rangeland sustainability and nomads' poverty: A counterfactual analysis in Southwest Iran," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    3. Korbinian P. Freier & Manfred Finckh & Uwe A. Schneider, 2014. "Adaptation to New Climate by an Old Strategy? Modeling Sedentary and Mobile Pastoralism in Semi-Arid Morocco," Land, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-24, July.
    4. Samuel T. Partey & Robert B. Zougmoré & Mathieu Ouédraogo & Naresh V. Thevathasan, 2017. "Why Promote Improved Fallows as a Climate-Smart Agroforestry Technology in Sub-Saharan Africa?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-12, October.
    5. Juan Miguel Rodriguez-Lopez & Meike Schickhoff & Shubhankar Sengupta & Jürgen Scheffran, 2021. "Technological and social networks of a pastoralist artificial society: agent-based modeling of mobility patterns," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 681-707, November.

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