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A “Foundation-Function-Structure” Framework for Multiple Scenario Assessment of Land Change-Induced Dynamics in Regional Ecosystem Quality

Author

Listed:
  • Yue Pan

    (College of Resources and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China)

  • Jing Gao

    (School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China)

  • Jianxin Yang

    (School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China)

Abstract

Understanding the changes in ecosystem quality caused by land use changes is critical for sustainable urban development and environmental management. This study investigates the spatial-temporal evolution of ecosystem quality in Wuhan from 2000 to 2020 and forecasts future trends under multiple land use scenarios for 2030. Using a “foundation-function-structure” assessment framework, we integrate system dynamics (SD), the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and a neural network-based ecosystem quality inversion model to analyze land use transitions and their ecological impacts. The results indicate that rapid urban expansion has significantly contributed to the decline of cropland and forest areas, while impervious surfaces have increased, leading to notable ecological degradation. Simulations for 2030 under three scenarios—ecological protection, natural development, and economic priority—demonstrate that the ecological protection scenario yields the highest ecosystem quality, preserving landscape connectivity and mitigating degradation risks. In contrast, the economic priority scenario results in extensive urban expansion, exacerbating ecological stress. Under the ecological protection scenario from 2020 to 2023, the decline in ecosystem quality was primarily due to the expansion of urban fringes and the erosion of forest and grassland areas. The increase in ecosystem quality was mainly attributed to the transformation of early urban edge conflict zones into stable urban edge interior areas and the integration of fragmented ecological land patches. These findings highlight the need for strategic land use planning to balance economic growth and environmental conservation. This study provides a robust methodological framework for assessing and predicting ecosystem quality changes, offering valuable insights for policymakers and urban planners striving for sustainable development.

Suggested Citation

  • Yue Pan & Jing Gao & Jianxin Yang, 2025. "A “Foundation-Function-Structure” Framework for Multiple Scenario Assessment of Land Change-Induced Dynamics in Regional Ecosystem Quality," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-23, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:3:p:515-:d:1603322
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yue Pan & Jian Gong & Jingye Li, 2022. "Assessment of Remote Sensing Ecological Quality by Introducing Water and Air Quality Indicators: A Case Study of Wuhan, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-22, December.
    2. Kong, Xuesong & Fu, Mengxue & Zhao, Xiang & Wang, Jing & Jiang, Ping, 2022. "Ecological effects of land-use change on two sides of the Hu Huanyong Line in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    3. Xiao-Peng Song & Matthew C. Hansen & Stephen V. Stehman & Peter V. Potapov & Alexandra Tyukavina & Eric F. Vermote & John R. Townshend, 2018. "Author Correction: Global land change from 1982 to 2016," Nature, Nature, vol. 563(7732), pages 26-26, November.
    4. Ahmed Marey & Liangzhu (Leon) Wang & Sherif Goubran & Abhishek Gaur & Henry Lu & Sylvie Leroyer & Stephane Belair, 2024. "Forecasting Urban Land Use Dynamics Through Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation and Markov Chain Integration: A Multi-Scenario Predictive Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-19, November.
    5. Xiao-Peng Song & Matthew C. Hansen & Stephen V. Stehman & Peter V. Potapov & Alexandra Tyukavina & Eric F. Vermote & John R. Townshend, 2018. "Global land change from 1982 to 2016," Nature, Nature, vol. 560(7720), pages 639-643, August.
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