IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v14y2025i3p454-d1597347.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Land Use Transition and Regional Development Patterns Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Evidence from Prefecture-Level Cities in China

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaodong Zhang

    (Information and Communication Company of State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Mingjie Yang

    (Information and Communication Company of State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Rui Guo

    (Information and Communication Company of State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Yaolong Li

    (School of Economics, Minzu University of China, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Fanglei Zhong

    (School of Economics, Minzu University of China, Beijing 100081, China)

Abstract

This study evaluates the spatial–temporal evolution of land use intensity and regional development under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) through prefecture-level projections in China (2020–2050). This study integrates the population–development–environment model with back propagation (BP) neural networks, a supervised learning algorithm, to analyze how differentiated development trajectories reshape land systems. Results reveal distinct pathways: SSP5 (conventional development) and SSP1 (sustainability) achieve high-income thresholds by 2025/2028 with intensive land development, while SSP3 (fragmentation) risks stagnation post-2037 accompanied by inefficient land use. Spatial analysis identifies persistent dualism across the Hu Huanyong Line—83.6% of urban land expansion concentrates in eastern regions, whereas western areas exhibit 56% lower land productivity. By 2050, regional land use efficiency differentials (0.3–4.3% Gross Domestic Product/capita growth) highlight challenges in balancing urban agglomeration and ecological conservation. These findings provide empirical evidence for optimizing land allocation policies during China’s economic transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaodong Zhang & Mingjie Yang & Rui Guo & Yaolong Li & Fanglei Zhong, 2025. "Land Use Transition and Regional Development Patterns Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Evidence from Prefecture-Level Cities in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-22, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:3:p:454-:d:1597347
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/3/454/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/3/454/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    2. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2020. "China in the middle-income trap?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    3. Detlef Vuuren & Elmar Kriegler & Brian O’Neill & Kristie Ebi & Keywan Riahi & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Ritu Mathur & Harald Winkler, 2014. "A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 373-386, February.
    4. Orazio P. Attanasio & Lucio Picci & Antonello E. Scorcu, 2000. "Saving, Growth, and Investment: A Macroeconomic Analysis Using a Panel of Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 182-211, May.
    5. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    6. Lynge Nielsen, 2011. "Classifications of Countries Basedon their Level of Development: How it is Done and How it Could Be Done," IMF Working Papers 2011/031, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Homi Kharas & Indermit Gill, 2007. "An East Asian Renaissance : Ideas for Economic Growth," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6798.
    8. Åsa Johansson & Yvan Guillemette & Fabrice Murtin & David Turner & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Philip Bagnoli & Guillaume Bousquet & Francesca Spinelli, 2013. "Long-Term Growth Scenarios," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1000, OECD Publishing.
    9. Wang, Deyun & Luo, Hongyuan & Grunder, Olivier & Lin, Yanbing & Guo, Haixiang, 2017. "Multi-step ahead electricity price forecasting using a hybrid model based on two-layer decomposition technique and BP neural network optimized by firefly algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 390-407.
    10. Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.
    11. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    12. Aijun Guo & Xiaojiang Ding & Fanglei Zhong & Qingping Cheng & Chunlin Huang, 2019. "Predicting the Future Chinese Population using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, the Sixth National Population Census, and a PDE Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-17, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lanzi, Elisa & Dellink, Rob & Chateau, Jean, 2018. "The sectoral and regional economic consequences of outdoor air pollution to 2060," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 89-113.
    2. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Wolfgang Fengler & Homi Kharas & Karim Bekhtiar & Michael Brottrager & Martin Hofer, 2018. "Will the Sustainable Development Goals be fulfilled? Assessing present and future global poverty," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(1), pages 1-8, December.
    3. J. Farmer & Cameron Hepburn & Penny Mealy & Alexander Teytelboym, 2015. "A Third Wave in the Economics of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(2), pages 329-357, October.
    4. Standardi, Gabriele, 2017. "Endogenous technical change linked to international mobility of primary factors in climate change scenarios: global welfare implications using the GTAP model," Conference papers 332920, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Moyer, Jonathan D., 2023. "Blessed are the peacemakers: The future burden of intrastate conflict on poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    6. Lamperti, Francesco & Bosetti, Valentina & Roventini, Andrea & Tavoni, Massimo & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Three green financial policies to address climate risks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Solberg, Birger & Moiseyev, Alex & Hansen, Jon Øvrum & Horn, Svein Jarle & Øverland, Margareth, 2021. "Wood for food: Economic impacts of sustainable use of forest biomass for salmon feed production in Norway," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    8. Speers, Ann E. & Besedin, Elena Y. & Palardy, James E. & Moore, Chris, 2016. "Impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on coral reef fisheries: An integrated ecological–economic model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 33-43.
    9. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    10. McManamay, Ryan A. & DeRolph, Christopher R. & Surendran-Nair, Sujithkumar & Allen-Dumas, Melissa, 2019. "Spatially explicit land-energy-water future scenarios for cities: Guiding infrastructure transitions for urban sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 880-900.
    11. Richard Taylor & Ruth Butterfield & Tiago Capela Lourenço & Adis Dzebo & Henrik Carlsen & Richard J. T. Klein, 2020. "Surveying perceptions and practices of high-end climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 65-87, July.
    12. Roson, Roberto & Damania, Richard, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Conference papers 332687, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    13. Phetheet, Jirapat & Hill, Mary C. & Barron, Robert W. & Gray, Benjamin J. & Wu, Hongyu & Amanor-Boadu, Vincent & Heger, Wade & Kisekka, Isaya & Golden, Bill & Rossi, Matthew W., 2021. "Relating agriculture, energy, and water decisions to farm incomes and climate projections using two freeware programs, FEWCalc and DSSAT," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    14. Milan Ščasný & Emanuele Massetti & Jan Melichar & Samuel Carrara, 2015. "Quantifying the Ancillary Benefits of the Representative Concentration Pathways on Air Quality in Europe," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(2), pages 383-415, October.
    15. Coppens, Léo & Venmans, Frank, 2025. "The welfare properties of climate targets," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    16. Enrica De Cian & Ian Sue Wing, 2016. "Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate," Working Papers 2016.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    17. Tom Wilson & Irina Grossman & Monica Alexander & Phil Rees & Jeromey Temple, 2022. "Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 865-898, June.
    18. Victor Nechifor & Matthew Winning, 2017. "The impacts of higher CO2 concentrations over global crop production and irrigation water requirements," EcoMod2017 10487, EcoMod.
    19. Dugan, Anna & Mayer, Jakob & Thaller, Annina & Bachner, Gabriel & Steininger, Karl W., 2022. "Developing policy packages for low-carbon passenger transport: A mixed methods analysis of trade-offs and synergies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    20. Fabien Cremona & Sirje Vilbaste & Raoul-Marie Couture & Peeter Nõges & Tiina Nõges, 2017. "Is the future of large shallow lakes blue-green? Comparing the response of a catchment-lake model chain to climate predictions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 347-361, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:3:p:454-:d:1597347. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.