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Determining and Quantifying Urban Sprawl Drivers: A Delphi-DANP Approach

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  • Ali Soltani

    (FHMRI, Flinders University, Bedford Park, Adelaide, SA 5042, Australia
    LE STUDIUM Loire Valley Institute for Advanced Studies 1 Rue Dupanloup, 45000 Orléans, France
    CEDETE Research Center, University of Orléans, 45065 Orléans, France)

  • Parviz Azizi

    (Department of Urban Planning, Faculty of Art & Architecture, Urmia University, Urmia 5756151818, Iran)

  • Masoud Javadpoor

    (Department of Urban Planning, Faculty of Art & Architecture, Shiraz University, Shiraz 7194684471, Iran)

  • Andrew Allan

    (UniSA Creative, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia)

  • Bagher Bagheri

    (Independent Researcher, Shiraz 7194684471, Iran)

Abstract

Urban sprawl poses a significant and escalating challenge in developing countries, including Iran, leading to substantial transformations in urban areas. Despite efforts to manage urban spatial development, uncontrolled urban sprawl exerts considerable pressure on resources, infrastructure, and the environment. This study aims to identify and quantify the drivers of urban sprawl and investigate their interrelationships within Iranian metropolises. To achieve this objective, the study employs a mixed-method approach, commencing with a review of the existing literature and expert surveys based on PESTEL analysis and the Delphi method. This stage identified and categorized 40 key drivers (sub-factors) into six main categories (factors): political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal. Subsequently, the DEMATEL-based Analytic Network Process (DANP) method is utilized to explore the internal interrelationships among factors and sub-factors and to determine their relative weights, offering deeper insights into their relationships and relative importance. The findings reveal a complex interplay of political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal factors driving urban sprawl in Iran. Key drivers include political fragmentation, economic competition, social preferences for suburban living, rural-to-urban migration, increasing housing demand, weak legal regulations, natural constraints, inadequate transportation infrastructure, and the impact of technological advancements. Based on these findings, the study recommends a holistic approach to sustainable urban development in Iran, emphasizing the need for stakeholder engagement, participatory decision making, legal reforms, and significant investments in public transportation infrastructure.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Soltani & Parviz Azizi & Masoud Javadpoor & Andrew Allan & Bagher Bagheri, 2025. "Determining and Quantifying Urban Sprawl Drivers: A Delphi-DANP Approach," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-23, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:2:p:311-:d:1582451
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Linlin Zhang & Xianfan Shu & Liang Zhang, 2023. "Urban Sprawl and Its Multidimensional and Multiscale Measurement," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-17, March.
    2. Seyyed Hadi Hosseini & Mehran Hajilou, 2019. "Drivers of urban sprawl in urban areas of Iran," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(2), pages 1137-1158, April.
    3. Yan Long & Xi Liu & Shiqi Luo & Tianyue Luo & Siyu Hu & Yuqiao Zheng & Jingmei Shao & Xuejun Liu, 2023. "Evolution and Prediction of Urban Fringe Areas Based on Logistic–CA–Markov Models: The Case of Wuhan City," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-30, October.
    4. Ali Soltani & Mohammad Hosseinpour & Ali Hajizadeh, 2017. "Urban Sprawl in Iranian Medium-sized Cities; Investigating the Role of Masterplans," Journal of Sustainable Development, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(1), pages 122-122, February.
    5. Mohamad Molaei Qelichi & Amin Safdari Molan & Beniamino Murgante, 2023. "Investigating the Drivers of Knowledge-Based Growth Management Using Fuzzy MICMAC: A Case Study in Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-17, February.
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    7. Soltani, Ali, 2017. "Social and urban form determinants of vehicle ownership; evidence from a developing country," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 90-100.
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