Exploring Crop Production Strategies to Mitigate Greenhouse Gas Emissions Based on Scenario Analysis

In the context of global climate change and carbon neutrality goals, agriculture has emerged as a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and faces the critical challenge of reducing emissions while ensuring food security. However, existing research has rarely focused on dynamic simulation and scenario-based analysis of optimised agricultural layouts and their impact on GHG emissions. Taking the three northeastern provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning) of China as the study area, this study quantifies GHG emissions from major grain crops and employs time-series analysis and machine learning methods to conduct a scenario analysis, including three scenarios (Business as Usual, Sustainable Optimisation, and Ecological Priority). Specific policy implications are proposed for optimising agricultural layouts and mitigating GHG emissions. The results indicate that GHG emissions in Northeast China primarily stem from methane emissions in rice cultivation and nitrous oxide emissions from fertiliser use. A scenario analysis reveals that the “Sustainable Optimisation” scenario reduces GHG emissions by 22.0% through optimised planting layouts while maintaining stable crop production. The “Ecological Priority” scenario further enhances emission reductions to 25.2% by increasing the share of low-emission crops, such as corn, and reducing high-emission crops, such as rice. The study provides a practical reference for promoting the low carbonisation of agriculture, and demonstrates that optimising planting layouts and production structures can simultaneously achieve food security and climate change mitigation.