Assessing the Coordination Development Level of Agricultural Economy and Ecology in China: Regional Disparities, Dynamics, and Barriers

Achieving sustainable rural development in China requires effectively integrating agricultural growth with ecological balance. However, existing research on the coordination between agricultural economy and ecosystems has often focused on isolated aspects, such as economic growth or ecological sustainability, or has been limited to specific provinces or regions, lacking a comprehensive nationwide analysis. To address this gap, this study uses spatial data from 31 provincial-level regions in China from 2008 to 2022, developing a multidimensional framework that encompasses economic input, structure, efficiency, benefits, vitality, ecological conditions, and pressure. Using multi-factor econometric methods, we comprehensively evaluate the coordination between China’s agricultural economy and ecosystems, revealing regional disparities and spatiotemporal variations in their coupling coordination, and analyzing the barriers affecting this coordination. Our findings show that: First, coupling coordination has steadily improved, narrowing regional disparities. Second, regional differences are primarily driven by variations between the eastern, central, and western regions, with structural disparities shifting from interregional to hyper-variable density. Third, development exhibits a “club convergence” pattern, where upward transitions are difficult and downward mobility is a risk. Key barriers include farmland scale, land efficiency, afforestation area, and soil erosion control. Based on these findings, we recommend regional development strategies, dynamic monitoring mechanisms, optimized land use, and enhanced ecological protection. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers and practitioners to promote the coordinated and sustainable development of agricultural economies and ecosystems in China.