An Analysis of Land Use Conflicts and Strategies in the Harbin–Changchun Urban Agglomeration Based on the Production–Ecological–Living Space Theory and Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation

In recent years, rapid economic development, increasing human activities, and global climate change have led to escalating demands for land across production, residential, and ecological domains. This surge has heightened land use conflicts, significantly impacting sustainable land utilization and regional sustainable development. Drawing upon the “Production–Ecological–Living Space” (PELS) theory, this study employs a Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to project the PELS of the Harbin–Changchun Urban Agglomeration (HCUA) under four scenarios for 2030. Introducing the concepts of absolute and relative conflicts in land use, this study utilizes a spatial comprehensive conflict index (SCCI) model to assess the progression of absolute conflicts from 2000 to 2020 and across various scenarios for 2030, while a remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) model is utilized to evaluate the evolution of relative conflicts from 2000 to 2020. The results indicate the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020 and different scenarios in 2030, the PELS of the HCUA is dominated by forest ecological space (E1) and agricultural production space (P1), with no substantial alterations in the overall spatial distribution of the PELS. (2) Absolute and relative conflicts between 2000 and 2020 are mainly concentrated in the plains of the western regions, characterized by conflicts arising from the encroachment of living space on production space; however, absolute conflicts have declined annually, accompanied by a notable enhancement in ecological quality. (3) The spatial pattern of absolute conflicts in 2030 exhibits minimal variation, illustrating higher values in the western regions compared to the eastern parts, with living space surpassing ecological space and plains showing higher conflict values than mountains. Notably, the economic development (ED) scenario exhibits the most intense conflicts, with areas of high conflict prevailing, whereas the sustainable development goals (SDGs) scenario depicts enhancements in absolute conflicts while maintaining equilibrium between economic and ecological development requirements. This research offers valuable insights into mitigating land use conflicts in the HCUA, provides a new perspective for studying changes in land use conflicts, and serves as a scientific reference for sustainable land utilization and regional sustainable development.