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A Simulation of the Spatial Expansion Process of Shrinking Cities Based on the Concept of Smart Shrinkage: A Case Study of the City of Baishan

Author

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  • Wancong Li

    (College of Earth Sciences, Jilin University, Changchun 130061, China)

  • Hong Li

    (College of Earth Sciences, Jilin University, Changchun 130061, China)

  • Feilong Hao

    (School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China)

  • Zhiqiang Feng

    (School of GeoSciences, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, UK)

  • Shijun Wang

    (School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China)

Abstract

The coexistence of urban expansion and shrinkage in China has become increasingly apparent; therefore, the current strategic model of growth-oriented urban planning as the top-level design needs to be adjusted. This paper focuses on the city of Baishan, which is a typical shrinking city in China, and explores the feasibility of implementing the concept of smart shrinkage planning in shrinking cities in China by constructing a coupled PLUS-SD model. The results demonstrate the following conclusions: (1) The overall simulation of the coupled PLUS-SD model is superior to that of the PLUS model. In Baishan, the areas with the most changes in construction land will be located at the edges of the landforms by 2030. (2) Using the traditional planning scenario would only exacerbate the rate of construction land expansion in Baishan, deepening the incongruity between the city’s population and construction land. (3) The smart shrinkage scenario will require strict control of the scale of construction land and optimization of the structure of the urban construction land, which would push the city in the direction of healthy and sustainable development. (4) The concept of smart shrinkage planning is a scientific and feasible plan for realizing the efficient and sustainable use of construction land in shrinking cities.

Suggested Citation

  • Wancong Li & Hong Li & Feilong Hao & Zhiqiang Feng & Shijun Wang, 2024. "A Simulation of the Spatial Expansion Process of Shrinking Cities Based on the Concept of Smart Shrinkage: A Case Study of the City of Baishan," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-21, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:2:p:239-:d:1339479
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nan Wang & Peijuan Zhu & Guohua Zhou & Xudong Xing & Yong Zhang, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use and Landscape Ecological Risk Response Based on Planning Control," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-29, November.
    2. Thorsten Wiechmann & Karina M. Pallagst, 2012. "Urban shrinkage in Germany and the USA: A Comparison of Transformation Patterns and Local Strategies," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 261-280, March.
    3. Matthias Bernt, 2009. "Partnerships for Demolition: The Governance of Urban Renewal in East Germany's Shrinking Cities," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 754-769, September.
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