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Spatiotemporal Evolution Patterns and Influencing Factors of Rural Shrinkage Under Rapid Urbanization: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province, China

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  • Rongrong Zhuo

    (School of Public Administration, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China
    Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Xinni Xu

    (School of Public Administration, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China)

  • Yuchen Zhou

    (School of Public Administration, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China)

  • Xinwei Guo

    (School of Geographic Sciences, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000, China)

Abstract

Under the context of urban–rural mobility driven by rapid urbanization, rural shrinkage is particularly pronounced in the developed regions of China, yet studies exploring its patterns and influencing factors are scarce. This paper uses Zhejiang Province as a case study to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of rural shrinkage from 2000 to 2020. By employing spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial econometric modeling, the study investigates both population and spatial shrinkage. The findings reveal the following: (1) a marked spatiotemporal imbalance exists in population and spatial dynamics in Zhejiang’s rural areas, where the interplay between population and spatial shrinkage contributes to regional disparities. (2) From 2000 to 2020, population shrinkage shifted from a global shrinkage to a more localized decline in the northeast and southwest, while spatial shrinkage shifted from a global non-shrinkage to a focus on central and southwestern areas. (3) Urbanization significantly negatively impacts rural shrinkage, while the spatial spillover effect of urbanization is notably positive. In contrast, factors related to natural conditions, location, and agricultural investment show significant positive effects but also notable negative spatial spillover effects. This study aims to provide a comprehensive analytical framework for understanding rural shrinkage and offers valuable insights for rural development, infrastructure planning, and spatial governance.

Suggested Citation

  • Rongrong Zhuo & Xinni Xu & Yuchen Zhou & Xinwei Guo, 2024. "Spatiotemporal Evolution Patterns and Influencing Factors of Rural Shrinkage Under Rapid Urbanization: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-18, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:12:p:2137-:d:1539747
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    References listed on IDEAS

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