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Spatio-Temporal Variation Characteristics of North Africa’s Climate Potential Productivity

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  • Mo Bi

    (Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, Nanjing 210093, China
    School of Geographic & Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
    Institute of African Studies, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Lei Wan

    (School of Geographic & Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
    Institute of African Studies, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Zhenke Zhang

    (Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, Nanjing 210093, China
    School of Geographic & Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
    Institute of African Studies, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
    Johns Hopkins University-Nanjing University Center for Chinese and American Studies, Nanjing 210093, China)

  • Xingqi Zhang

    (School of Geographic & Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
    Institute of African Studies, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China)

  • Chengzhi Yu

    (Department of Architecture and Built Environment, University of Nottingham, Ningbo 315100, China)

Abstract

Africa is becoming one of the most sensitive and vulnerable regions of the global ecosystem due to its variable climate, complex topography, and diversity of natural ecosystems. In the context of global warming, climate change not only alters the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation in North Africa, but also affects the spatial distribution of vegetation as well as the structure and function of ecosystems, causing changes in the North African ecosystem and inducing a series of food security problems. In this regard, this paper analyzed the spatio-temporal distribution of climate change, climate production potential (CPP), and influencing factors in Africa based on meteorological data for 1901–2019, using the Thornthwaite Memorial model, Mann–Kendall mutation test, and Pearson correlation model. The results indicated that from 1901 to 2019, the CPP in North Africa decreased by 4.9%, while the region’s precipitation experienced a decline of 5.2%. The phased trend in CPP was consistent with the change in precipitation. Temperature and precipitation were the main limiting factors for CPP in North Africa, with precipitation being more limiting. In general, North Africa’s CPP was more sensitive to precipitation, and a continued ‘warm and dry’ climate in the future could lead to an increasing downward trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Mo Bi & Lei Wan & Zhenke Zhang & Xingqi Zhang & Chengzhi Yu, 2023. "Spatio-Temporal Variation Characteristics of North Africa’s Climate Potential Productivity," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-17, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:9:p:1710-:d:1230878
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Julia C Devlin, 2010. "Challenges of Economic Development in the Middle East and North Africa Region," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 6762, December.
    2. Shilong Piao & Philippe Ciais & Yao Huang & Zehao Shen & Shushi Peng & Junsheng Li & Liping Zhou & Hongyan Liu & Yuecun Ma & Yihui Ding & Pierre Friedlingstein & Chunzhen Liu & Kun Tan & Yongqiang Yu , 2010. "The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7311), pages 43-51, September.
    3. Yubin Zhao & Shuguang Liu, 2023. "Effects of Climate Change on Economic Growth: A Perspective of the Heterogeneous Climate Regions in Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-22, April.
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