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A Modeling Approach for Analyzing the Hydrological Impacts of the Agribusiness Land-Use Scenarios in an Amazon Basin

Author

Listed:
  • Zandra A. Cunha

    (Water Resources Graduate Program, Federal University of Pelotas de Pelotas (UFPel), Gomes Carneito Street 1, Porto, Pelotas 96010-610, RS, Brazil)

  • Carlos R. Mello

    (Water Resources Department, School of Engineering, Federal University of Lavras (UFLA), Lavras 37200-900, MG, Brazil
    Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, College of ACES, University of Illinois at Ubana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA)

  • Samuel Beskow

    (Water Resources Graduate Program, Federal University of Pelotas de Pelotas (UFPel), Gomes Carneito Street 1, Porto, Pelotas 96010-610, RS, Brazil)

  • Marcelle M. Vargas

    (Water Resources Graduate Program, Federal University of Pelotas de Pelotas (UFPel), Gomes Carneito Street 1, Porto, Pelotas 96010-610, RS, Brazil)

  • Jorge A. Guzman

    (Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, College of ACES, University of Illinois at Ubana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA)

  • Maíra M. Moura

    (Water Resources Graduate Program, Federal University of Pelotas de Pelotas (UFPel), Gomes Carneito Street 1, Porto, Pelotas 96010-610, RS, Brazil)

Abstract

The Xingu River Basin (XRB) in the Brazilian Amazon region has a great relevance to the development of northern Brazil because of the Belo Monte hydropower plant and its crescent agribusiness expansion. This study aimed to evaluate the potential of the Lavras Simulation of the Hydrology (LASH) model to represent the main hydrological processes in the XRB and simulate the hydrological impacts in the face of land-use change scenarios. Following the trend of the most relevant agribusiness evolution in the XRB, four agribusiness scenarios (S) were structured considering the increase in grasslands (S 1 : 50% over the native forest; S 2 : 100% over the native forest) and soybean plantations (S 3 : 50% over the native forest; S 4 : 100% over native forest). Average hydrographs were simulated, and the frequency duration curves (FDC) and average annual values of the main hydrological components for each scenario were compared. The results showed that, in general, changes in land use based on deforestation in the XRB would lead to an increase in flood streamflow and a reduction in baseflow. The increases in direct surface runoff varied from 4.4% for S 1 to 29.8% for S 4 scenarios. The reduction in baseflow varied from −1.6% for S 1 to −4.9% for S 2 . These changes were reduced when the entire XRB was analyzed, but notable for the sub-basins in its headwater region, where the scenarios were more effective.

Suggested Citation

  • Zandra A. Cunha & Carlos R. Mello & Samuel Beskow & Marcelle M. Vargas & Jorge A. Guzman & Maíra M. Moura, 2023. "A Modeling Approach for Analyzing the Hydrological Impacts of the Agribusiness Land-Use Scenarios in an Amazon Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-20, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:7:p:1422-:d:1195133
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nayara P. V. Andrade & Marcelo R. Viola & Samuel Beskow & Tamara L. Caldeira & Li Guo & Carlos R. Mello, 2020. "Assessment of Spatial and Temporal Soil Water Storage Using a Distributed Hydrological Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(15), pages 5031-5046, December.
    2. S. Mishra & Vijay Singh & J. Sansalone & V. Aravamuthan, 2003. "A Modified SCS-CN Method: Characterization and Testing," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 17(1), pages 37-68, February.
    3. Samuel Beskow & Lloyd Norton & Carlos Mello, 2013. "Hydrological Prediction in a Tropical Watershed Dominated by Oxisols Using a Distributed Hydrological Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(2), pages 341-363, January.
    4. Ramon Felipe Bicudo da Silva & Mateus Batistella & Yue Dou & Emilio Moran & Sara McMillan Torres & Jianguo Liu, 2017. "The Sino-Brazilian Telecoupled Soybean System and Cascading Effects for the Exporting Country," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-19, August.
    5. M. Viola & C. Mello & S. Beskow & L. Norton, 2014. "Impacts of Land-use Changes on the Hydrology of the Grande River Basin Headwaters, Southeastern Brazil," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(13), pages 4537-4550, October.
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