IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v11y2022i8p1177-d873871.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulation and Prediction of Evolution of Specialized Villages Agglomeration Based on System Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Yuling Ma

    (College of Economics, Zhengzhou University of Aeronautics, Zhengzhou 450046, China
    Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions (Henan University), Ministry of Education, Kaifeng 475004, China
    College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China)

  • Jiajun Qiao

    (Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions (Henan University), Ministry of Education, Kaifeng 475004, China
    College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China)

  • Dong Han

    (Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions (Henan University), Ministry of Education, Kaifeng 475004, China
    College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China)

Abstract

Rural recession is a worldwide problem, and rural revitalization will increasingly become an important global issue. The development of specialized villages is the engine of rural revitalization, so the research on it is of great significance for guiding the sustainable development of the rural economy. In this study, by analyzing the evolutionary mechanism of the specialized villages agglomeration (SVA) from the perspective of system theory, we simulated and predicted the evolution of specialized villages agglomeration at the foot of the Taihang Mountains in Henan Province, China. We based this work on the general process of establishing a system dynamics model, and made the following conclusions: (1) According to the boundary suitability, dimensional consistency, structural evaluation, and sensitivity tests, we considered that the model could simulate the evolution of SVA at the foot of the Taihang Mountains and we explored the corresponding evolutionary mechanism; (2) The SVA effect was an “S-shaped” curve, which we divided into three periods: the formation period (0–8 years), the growth period (9–20 years), and the maturation period (21–30 years); (3) The contribution of capital to the agglomeration effect was most significant in the formation period; during the growth period, the contribution of laborers and technologies to the agglomeration effect increased rapidly; and in the maturation period, the contribution of laborers to the agglomeration effect gradually declined, whereas the contribution of technology and capital to the agglomeration effect still increased. The research results provide a theoretical reference for the sustainable development of specialized villages.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuling Ma & Jiajun Qiao & Dong Han, 2022. "Simulation and Prediction of Evolution of Specialized Villages Agglomeration Based on System Dynamics," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-18, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:8:p:1177-:d:873871
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/8/1177/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/8/1177/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nguyen Thi Anh, 2013. "One Village One Product (OVOP) in Japan to One Tambon One Product (OTOP) in Thailand: Lessons for Grass Root Development in Developing Countries," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 4(12), pages 529-537.
    2. Prasad, Pooja & Damani, Om P. & Sohoni, Milind, 2022. "How can resource-level thresholds guide sustainable intensification of agriculture at farm level? A system dynamics study of farm-pond based intensification," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    3. Jiajun Qiao & Jay Lee & Xinyue Ye, 2016. "Spatiotemporal Evolution of Specialized Villages and Rural Development: A Case Study of Henan Province, China," Annals of the American Association of Geographers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 106(1), pages 57-75, January.
    4. Rozelle, Scott & Boisvert, Richard N., 1995. "Control in a dynamic village economy: The reforms and unbalanced development in China's rural economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 233-252, April.
    5. Philippe Darreau & François Pigalle, 2015. "Long-run effects of capital market integration using Solow's model," Post-Print hal-01203591, HAL.
    6. Dong Han & Jiajun Qiao & Qiankun Zhu, 2021. "Rural-Spatial Restructuring Promoted by Land-Use Transitions: A Case Study of Zhulin Town in Central China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-28, February.
    7. Mendels, Franklin F., 1972. "Proto-industrialization: The First Phase of the Industrialization Process," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(1), pages 241-261, March.
    8. Herrera, H & Schütz, L & Paas, W & Reidsma, P & Kopainsky, B, 2022. "Understanding resilience of farming systems: Insights from system dynamics modelling for an arable farming system in the Netherlands," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 464(C).
    9. Gullickson, Gay L., 1983. "Agriculture and Cottage Industry: Redefining the Causes of Proto-Industrialization," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(4), pages 831-850, December.
    10. Marta Bottero & Giulia Datola & Elena De Angelis, 2020. "A System Dynamics Model and Analytic Network Process: An Integrated Approach to Investigate Urban Resilience," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-26, July.
    11. Philippe Darreau & François Pigalle, 2015. "Long-run effects of capital market integration using Solow's model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(3), pages 1459-1468.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yue Peng & Hui Qiu & Xinlu Wang, 2023. "The Influence of Spatial Functions on the Public Space System of Traditional Settlements," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-26, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yang Liu & Jiajun Qiao & Jie Xiao & Dong Han & Tao Pan, 2022. "Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Rural Revitalization and an Improvement Path: A Typical Old Revolutionary Cultural Area as an Example," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-24, October.
    2. Greif, Gavin, 2022. "Merchants, proto-firms, and the German industrialization: the commercial determinants of nineteenth century town growth," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113346, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Thomas Baudin & Robert Stelter, 2022. "The rural exodus and the rise of Europe," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 365-414, September.
    4. Mikołaj Szołtysek & Siegfried Gruber & Rembrandt D. Scholz & Barbara Zuber Goldstein, 2009. "Social change and family change in a Central European urban context: Rostock 1819-1867," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-039, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    5. Haicong Li & Lu Wang & Jianzhou Gong & A-Xing Zhu & Yueming Hu, 2021. "Land-Use Modes of the Dike–Pond System in the Pearl River Delta of China and Implications for Rural Revitalization," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-20, April.
    6. Broadberry, Stephen & Ghosal, Sayantan & Proto, Eugenio, 2017. "Anonymity, efficiency wages and technological progress," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 379-394.
    7. Broadberry, Stephen & Ghosal, Sayantan & Proto, Eugenio, 2011. "Is Anonymity the Missing Link Between Commercial and Industrial Revolution?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 974, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    8. Broadberry Stephen, 2012. "Recent Developments in the Theory of Very Long Run Growth: A Historical Appraisal," Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte / Economic History Yearbook, De Gruyter, vol. 53(1), pages 277-306, May.
    9. Xinyao Li & Lingzhi Wang & Bryan Pijanowski & Lingpeng Pan & Hichem Omrani & Anqi Liang & Yi Qu, 2022. "The Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Transition Mode of Recessive Cultivated Land Use Morphology in the Huaibei Region of the Jiangsu Province," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, November.
    10. Parente, Stephen & Desmet, Klaus, 2009. "The Evolution of Markets and the Revolution of Industry: A Quantitative Model of England's Development, 1300-2000," CEPR Discussion Papers 7290, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Ken Tabata, 2013. "The Expansion of the Commercial Sector and the Child Quantity-Quality Transition in a Malthusian World," Discussion Paper Series 105, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised May 2013.
    12. Stephan Heblich & David Krisztián Nagy & Alex Trew & Yanos Zylberberg, 2023. "The death and life of great British cities," Economics Working Papers 1867, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    13. Tian Tian & Stijn Speelman, 2021. "Pursuing Development behind Heterogeneous Ideologies: Review of Six Evolving Themes and Narratives of Rural Planning in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-16, September.
    14. Filip Novokmet, 2018. "The long-run evolution of inequality in the Czech Lands, 1898-2015," World Inequality Lab Working Papers hal-02878212, HAL.
    15. Nicolas De Vijlder & Koen Schoors, 2019. "Land Rights, Local Financial Development And Industrial Activity: Evidence From Flanders (19th – Early 20th Century)," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 19/962, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    16. Broadberry Stephen & Fremdling Rainer & Solar Peter M., 2008. "European Industry 1700-1870," Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte / Economic History Yearbook, De Gruyter, vol. 49(2), pages 141-172, December.
    17. Yi Wen & George E. Fortier, 2019. "The visible hand: the role of government in China’s long-awaited industrial revolution," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 9-45, January.
    18. Gerard Olivar-Tost & Johnny Valencia-Calvo & Julián Andrés Castrillón-Gómez, 2020. "Towards Decision-Making for the Assessment and Prioritization of Green Projects: An Integration between System Dynamics and Participatory Modeling," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-23, December.
    19. Xiaojian Li & Xinyue Ye & Xiongfei Zhou & Chunhui Zheng & Mark Leipnik & Fan Lou, 2018. "Specialized Villages in Inland China: Spatial and Developmental Issues," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-15, August.
    20. Kjell Sümegi & Peter Haiss, 2006. "The Relationship of Insurance and Economic Growth - a Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," EcoMod2006 272100091, EcoMod.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:8:p:1177-:d:873871. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.