Quantification and Simulation of Landscape Anthropization around the Mining Agglomerations of Southeastern Katanga (DR Congo) between 1979 and 2090

In Southeastern Katanga, mining activities are (in)directly responsible for deforestation, ecosystem degradation and unplanned building densification. However, little is known about these dynamics at the local level. First, we quantify the landscape anthropization around four agglomerations of Southeastern Katanga (Lubumbashi, Likasi, Fungurume and Kolwezi) in order to assess the applicability of the Nature–Agriculture-Urbanization model based on the fact that natural landscapes are replaced by anthropogenic landscapes, first dominated by agricultural production, and then built-up areas. Secondly, we predict evolutionary trends of landscape anthropization by 2090 through the first-order Markov chain. Mapping coupled with landscape ecology analysis tools revealed that the natural cover that dominated the landscape in 1979 lost more than 60% of its area in 41 years (1979–2020) around these agglomerations in favor of agricultural and energy production, the new landscape matrix in 2020, but also built-up areas. These disturbances, amplified between 2010 and 2020, are more significant around Lubumbashi and Kolwezi agglomerations. Built-up areas which spread progressively will become the dominant process by 2060 in Lubumbashi and by 2075 in Kolwezi. Our results confirm the applicability of the Nature–Agriculture-Urbanization model to the tropical context and underline the urgency to put in place a territorial development plan and alternatives regarding the use of charcoal as a main energy source in order to decrease the pressure on natural ecosystems, particularly in peri-urban areas.