IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v11y2022i4p567-d791929.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The New Dominator of the World: Modeling the Global Distribution of the Japanese Beetle under Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Francesca Della Rocca

    (Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Pavia, Via Ferrata 9, 27100 Pavia, Italy)

  • Pietro Milanesi

    (Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204 Sempach, Switzerland)

Abstract

The spread of invasive species is a threat to global biodiversity. The Japanese beetle is native to Japan, but alien populations of this insect occur in North America, and recently, also in southern Europe. This beetle was recently included on the list of priority species of European concern, as it is a highly invasive agricultural pest. Thus, in this study, we aimed at (i) assessing its current distribution range, and identifying areas of potential invasion, and (ii) predicting its distribution using future climatic and land-use change scenarios for 2050. We collected species occurrences available on the citizen science platform iNaturalist, and we combined species data with climatic and land-use predictors using a Bayesian framework, specifically the integrated nested Laplace approximation, with a stochastic partial differential equation. We found that the current distribution of the Japanese beetle was mainly, and positively, driven by the percentage of croplands, the annual range of temperature, habitat diversity, percentage of human settlements, and human population density; it was negatively related to the distance to airports, elevation, mean temperature diurnal range, wetlands, and waters. As a result, based on current conditions, the Japanese beetle is likely to occur in 47,970,200 km 2 , while its distribution will range from between 53,418,200 and 59,126,825 km 2 , according to the 2050 climatic and land-use change scenarios. We concluded that the Japanese beetle is a high-risk invasive species, able to find suitable conditions for its colonization in several regions around the globe, especially in light of ongoing climatic change. Thus, we strongly recommend strict biosecurity checks and quarantines, as well as regular pest management surveys, in order to reduce its spread.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesca Della Rocca & Pietro Milanesi, 2022. "The New Dominator of the World: Modeling the Global Distribution of the Japanese Beetle under Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:4:p:567-:d:791929
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/4/567/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/4/567/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anonymous, 1961. "World Meteorological Organization," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 197-198, January.
    2. Corey J. A. Bradshaw & Boris Leroy & Céline Bellard & David Roiz & Céline Albert & Alice Fournier & Morgane Barbet-Massin & Jean-Michel Salles & Frédéric Simard & Franck Courchamp, 2016. "Massive yet grossly underestimated global costs of invasive insects," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-8, December.
    3. Håvard Rue & Sara Martino & Nicolas Chopin, 2009. "Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(2), pages 319-392, April.
    4. Fleming, Walter E., 1972. "Biology of the Japanese Beetle," Technical Bulletins 171890, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    5. Finn Lindgren & Håvard Rue & Johan Lindström, 2011. "An explicit link between Gaussian fields and Gaussian Markov random fields: the stochastic partial differential equation approach," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 73(4), pages 423-498, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Edgar Santos‐Fernandez & Julie Vercelloni & Aiden Price & Grace Heron & Bryce Christensen & Erin E. Peterson & Kerrie Mengersen, 2024. "Increasing Trust in New Data Sources: Crowdsourcing Image Classification for Ecology," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 92(1), pages 43-61, April.
    2. Pietro Milanesi & Felice Puopolo & Florian Zellweger, 2022. "Landscape Features, Human Disturbance or Prey Availability? What Shapes the Distribution of Large Carnivores in Europe?," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-15, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andre Python & Andreas Bender & Marta Blangiardo & Janine B. Illian & Ying Lin & Baoli Liu & Tim C.D. Lucas & Siwei Tan & Yingying Wen & Davit Svanidze & Jianwei Yin, 2022. "A downscaling approach to compare COVID‐19 count data from databases aggregated at different spatial scales," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(1), pages 202-218, January.
    2. Yuan Yan & Eva Cantoni & Chris Field & Margaret Treble & Joanna Mills Flemming, 2023. "Spatiotemporal modeling of mature‐at‐length data using a sliding window approach," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), March.
    3. Daniel Cervone & Alex D’Amour & Luke Bornn & Kirk Goldsberry, 2016. "A Multiresolution Stochastic Process Model for Predicting Basketball Possession Outcomes," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(514), pages 585-599, April.
    4. Jonathan Wakefield & Taylor Okonek & Jon Pedersen, 2020. "Small Area Estimation for Disease Prevalence Mapping," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 88(2), pages 398-418, August.
    5. Daniela Castro-Camilo & Raphaël Huser & Håvard Rue, 2019. "A Spliced Gamma-Generalized Pareto Model for Short-Term Extreme Wind Speed Probabilistic Forecasting," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 24(3), pages 517-534, September.
    6. I Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya & Henk Folmer, 2024. "High-Resolution Spatiotemporal Forecasting with Missing Observations Including an Application to Daily Particulate Matter 2.5 Concentrations in Jakarta Province, Indonesia," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-29, September.
    7. Athanasios C. Micheas & Jiaxun Chen, 2018. "sppmix: Poisson point process modeling using normal mixture models," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 1767-1798, December.
    8. Jacqueline D. Seufert & Andre Python & Christoph Weisser & Elías Cisneros & Krisztina Kis‐Katos & Thomas Kneib, 2022. "Mapping ex ante risks of COVID‐19 in Indonesia using a Bayesian geostatistical model on airport network data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(4), pages 2121-2155, October.
    9. Zhang, Shen & Liu, Xin & Tang, Jinjun & Cheng, Shaowu & Qi, Yong & Wang, Yinhai, 2018. "Spatio-temporal modeling of destination choice behavior through the Bayesian hierarchical approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 537-551.
    10. Zammit-Mangion, Andrew & Rougier, Jonathan, 2018. "A sparse linear algebra algorithm for fast computation of prediction variances with Gaussian Markov random fields," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 116-130.
    11. Paige, John & Fuglstad, Geir-Arne & Riebler, Andrea & Wakefield, Jon, 2022. "Bayesian multiresolution modeling of georeferenced data: An extension of ‘LatticeKrig’," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    12. Fasil Wagnew & Kefyalew Addis Alene & Matthew Kelly & Darren Gray, 2023. "Geospatial Overlap of Undernutrition and Tuberculosis in Ethiopia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(21), pages 1-15, October.
    13. Márcio Poletti Laurini, 2017. "A spatial error model with continuous random effects and an application to growth convergence," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 371-398, October.
    14. Somnath Chaudhuri & Gerard Giménez-Adsuar & Marc Saez & Maria A. Barceló, 2022. "PandemonCAT: Monitoring the COVID-19 Pandemic in Catalonia, Spain," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(8), pages 1-22, April.
    15. Michela Cameletti & Finn Lindgren & Daniel Simpson & Håvard Rue, 2013. "Spatio-temporal modeling of particulate matter concentration through the SPDE approach," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 97(2), pages 109-131, April.
    16. Aaron Osgood‐Zimmerman & Jon Wakefield, 2023. "A Statistical Review of Template Model Builder: A Flexible Tool for Spatial Modelling," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 91(2), pages 318-342, August.
    17. Daniel Vélez-Serrano & Alejandro Álvaro-Meca & Fernando Sebastián-Huerta & Jose Vélez-Serrano, 2021. "Spatio-Temporal Traffic Flow Prediction in Madrid: An Application of Residual Convolutional Neural Networks," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-16, May.
    18. Jonathan Bradley & Noel Cressie & Tao Shi, 2015. "Comparing and selecting spatial predictors using local criteria," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 24(1), pages 1-28, March.
    19. Matthew J. Heaton & Abhirup Datta & Andrew O. Finley & Reinhard Furrer & Joseph Guinness & Rajarshi Guhaniyogi & Florian Gerber & Robert B. Gramacy & Dorit Hammerling & Matthias Katzfuss & Finn Lindgr, 2019. "A Case Study Competition Among Methods for Analyzing Large Spatial Data," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 24(3), pages 398-425, September.
    20. Sameh Abdulah & Yuxiao Li & Jian Cao & Hatem Ltaief & David E. Keyes & Marc G. Genton & Ying Sun, 2023. "Large‐scale environmental data science with ExaGeoStatR," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:4:p:567-:d:791929. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.