IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v17y2024i8p323-d1443634.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Enhancing Model Selection by Obtaining Optimal Tuning Parameters in Elastic-Net Quantile Regression, Application to Crude Oil Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Abdullah S. Al-Jawarneh

    (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Jerash University, Jerash 26150, Jordan)

  • Ahmed R. M. Alsayed

    (Department of Economics, Quantitative Methods, and Data Mining Centre, University of Milan, 20122 Milan, Italy
    Department of Economics, University of Bergamo, 24127 Bergamo, Italy)

  • Heba N. Ayyoub

    (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Philadelphia University, Amman 19392, Jordan)

  • Mohd Tahir Ismail

    (School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Gelugor 11700, Malaysia)

  • Siok Kun Sek

    (School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Gelugor 11700, Malaysia)

  • Kivanç Halil Ariç

    (Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Sivas Cumhuriyet University, 58070 Sivas, Turkey)

  • Giancarlo Manzi

    (Department of Economics, Quantitative Methods, and Data Mining Centre, University of Milan, 20122 Milan, Italy)

Abstract

Recently, there has been an increased focus on enhancing the accuracy of machine learning techniques. However, there is the possibility to improve it by selecting the optimal tuning parameters, especially when data heterogeneity and multicollinearity exist. Therefore, this study proposed a statistical model to study the importance of changing the crude oil prices in the European Union, in which it should meet state-of-the-art developments on economic, political, environmental, and social challenges. The proposed model is Elastic-net quantile regression, which provides more accurate estimations to tackle multicollinearity, heavy-tailed distributions, heterogeneity, and selecting the most significant variables. The performance has been verified by several statistical criteria. The main findings of numerical simulation and real data application confirm the superiority of the proposed Elastic-net quantile regression at the optimal tuning parameters, as it provided significant information in detecting changes in oil prices. Accordingly, based on the significant selected variables; the exchange rate has the highest influence on oil price changes at high frequencies, followed by retail trade, interest rates, and the consumer price index. The importance of this research is that policymakers take advantage of the vital importance of developing energy policies and decisions in their planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdullah S. Al-Jawarneh & Ahmed R. M. Alsayed & Heba N. Ayyoub & Mohd Tahir Ismail & Siok Kun Sek & Kivanç Halil Ariç & Giancarlo Manzi, 2024. "Enhancing Model Selection by Obtaining Optimal Tuning Parameters in Elastic-Net Quantile Regression, Application to Crude Oil Prices," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-19, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:17:y:2024:i:8:p:323-:d:1443634
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/17/8/323/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/17/8/323/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Knut Are Aastveit & Jamie L. Cross & Herman K. van Dijk, 2023. "Quantifying Time-Varying Forecast Uncertainty and Risk for the Real Price of Oil," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 523-537, April.
    2. Koenker, Roger, 2004. "Quantile regression for longitudinal data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 74-89, October.
    3. Hui Xiao & Yiguo Sun, 2019. "On Tuning Parameter Selection in Model Selection and Model Averaging: A Monte Carlo Study," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-16, June.
    4. Fan J. & Li R., 2001. "Variable Selection via Nonconcave Penalized Likelihood and its Oracle Properties," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 1348-1360, December.
    5. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-694, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hui Xiao & Yiguo Sun, 2020. "Forecasting the Returns of Cryptocurrency: A Model Averaging Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-15, November.
    2. Weichi Wu & Zhou Zhou, 2017. "Nonparametric Inference for Time-Varying Coefficient Quantile Regression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 98-109, January.
    3. Jiang, Rong & Qian, Weimin & Zhou, Zhangong, 2012. "Variable selection and coefficient estimation via composite quantile regression with randomly censored data," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 308-317.
    4. Kock, Anders Bredahl, 2016. "Oracle inequalities, variable selection and uniform inference in high-dimensional correlated random effects panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 195(1), pages 71-85.
    5. Bang, Sungwan & Jhun, Myoungshic, 2012. "Simultaneous estimation and factor selection in quantile regression via adaptive sup-norm regularization," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 813-826.
    6. Zou, Hui & Yuan, Ming, 2008. "Regularized simultaneous model selection in multiple quantiles regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(12), pages 5296-5304, August.
    7. R. Alhamzawi & K. Yu & D. F. Benoit, 2011. "Bayesian adaptive Lasso quantile regression," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/728, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    8. Mohamed Ouhourane & Yi Yang & Andréa L. Benedet & Karim Oualkacha, 2022. "Group penalized quantile regression," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 31(3), pages 495-529, September.
    9. Muhammad Amin & Lixin Song & Milton Abdul Thorlie & Xiaoguang Wang, 2015. "SCAD-penalized quantile regression for high-dimensional data analysis and variable selection," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 69(3), pages 212-235, August.
    10. Alhamzawi, Rahim, 2016. "Bayesian model selection in ordinal quantile regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 68-78.
    11. Krüger, Jens & Ruths Sion, Sebastian, 2019. "Improving oil price forecasts by sparse VAR methods," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 237, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    12. Dengluan Dai & Anmin Tang & Jinli Ye, 2023. "High-Dimensional Variable Selection for Quantile Regression Based on Variational Bayesian Method," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-22, May.
    13. He, Qianchuan & Kong, Linglong & Wang, Yanhua & Wang, Sijian & Chan, Timothy A. & Holland, Eric, 2016. "Regularized quantile regression under heterogeneous sparsity with application to quantitative genetic traits," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 222-239.
    14. Yufeng Liu & Yichao Wu, 2011. "Simultaneous multiple non-crossing quantile regression estimation using kernel constraints," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 415-437.
    15. Ren, Xiaohang & Duan, Kun & Tao, Lizhu & Shi, Yukun & Yan, Cheng, 2022. "Carbon prices forecasting in quantiles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    16. Feng, Xiang-Nan & Wang, Yifan & Lu, Bin & Song, Xin-Yuan, 2017. "Bayesian regularized quantile structural equation models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 234-248.
    17. Tutz, Gerhard & Pößnecker, Wolfgang & Uhlmann, Lorenz, 2015. "Variable selection in general multinomial logit models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 207-222.
    18. Lu, Yao & Zhan, Shuwei & Zhan, Minghua, 2024. "Has FinTech changed the sensitivity of corporate investment to interest rates?—Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    19. Guan, Wei & Gray, Alexander, 2013. "Sparse high-dimensional fractional-norm support vector machine via DC programming," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 136-148.
    20. Margherita Giuzio, 2017. "Genetic algorithm versus classical methods in sparse index tracking," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 40(1), pages 243-256, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:17:y:2024:i:8:p:323-:d:1443634. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.