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Productivity and Keynes’s 15-Hour Work Week Prediction for 2030: An Alternative, Macroeconomic Analysis for the United States

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  • Edoardo Beretta

    (Institute of Economics, Università della Svizzera Italiana, Via Giuseppe Buffi 13, 6900 Lugano, Switzerland
    Department of Business and Economics, Franklin University Switzerland, Via Ponte Tresa 29, 6929 Sorengo, Switzerland)

  • Aurelio F. Bariviera

    (Department Gestió d’Empreses, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Av. Universitat 1, 43204 Reus, Spain)

  • Marco Desogus

    (Department of Law, Università degli Studi di Sassari, Viale Pasquale Stanislao Mancini 5, 07100 Sassari, Italy)

  • Costanza Naguib

    (Department of Economics, Universität Bern, Hochschulstrasse 6, 3012 Bern, Switzerland)

  • Sergio Rossi

    (Department of Economics, University of Fribourg, Bd de Pérolles 90, 1700 Fribourg, Switzerland)

Abstract

This paper analyses Keynes’s 1930 prediction that technical advances would cut people’s working week to 15 h by 2030 and investigates why actual working hours are significantly higher in the United States. Elaborating on Keynes’s forecast to provide a general productivity formula while keeping its simplicity, we ran tests on macro-data from 1929 to 2019 and on estimates for 2030, demonstrating that productivity is surprisingly still insufficient to allow for a reduction in working hours across the US economy. This finding represents a substantial contribution to the literature, which has mostly explained long working hours by means of new consumer needs. Even by using microdata, we show that consumption does not explain the stickiness of working hours to the bottom. Hence, this paper combines a macroeconomic, logical-analytical approach based on historical time series with rigorously constructed time series at the microeconomic level. Finally, we also provide policies to narrow the productivity differential to Keynes’s prediction for 2030 while fostering work-life balance and sustainable growth. To understand long working hours in the US despite technical advances—this being one of our main findings—productivity remains crucial.

Suggested Citation

  • Edoardo Beretta & Aurelio F. Bariviera & Marco Desogus & Costanza Naguib & Sergio Rossi, 2024. "Productivity and Keynes’s 15-Hour Work Week Prediction for 2030: An Alternative, Macroeconomic Analysis for the United States," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-30, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:17:y:2024:i:7:p:306-:d:1437283
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Magnus Reif & Mewael F. Tesfaselassie & Maik H. Wolters, 2021. "Technological Growth and Hours in the Long Run: Theory and Evidence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 1016-1053, October.
    2. Ronald DeBeaumont & Larry D. Singell Jr., 1999. "The Return to Hours and Workers in U.S. Manufacturing: Evidence on Aggregation Bias," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 66(2), pages 336-352, October.
    3. Collewet, Marion & Sauermann, Jan, 2017. "Working hours and productivity," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 96-106.
    4. Ronald DeBeaumont & Larry D. Singell, 1999. "The Return to Hours and Workers in U.S. Manufacturing: Evidence on Aggregation Bias," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 66(2), pages 336-352, October.
    5. Pullinger, Martin, 2014. "Working time reduction policy in a sustainable economy: Criteria and options for its design," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 11-19.
    6. Edward Shepard & Thomas Clifton, 2000. "Are longer hours reducing productivity in manufacturing?," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 21(7), pages 540-553, November.
    7. Kregel, J A, 1976. "Economic Methodology in the Face of Uncertainty: The Modelling Methods of Keynes and the Post-Keynesians," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 86(342), pages 209-225, June.
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